Hendrick Motorsports will have a driver in the final four, but it won't be either of their champions as both Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were eliminated Sunday. Denny Hamlin's title hopes also came to end, leaving the seasoned veteran Cup-less in his 19-year quest for the biggest prize in NASCAR.
All three faced unique challenges at Martinsville, and each one came agonizingly close to the 'golden ticket' that would have secured their place in the Championship 4 -- a win at Martinsville. No one can say they didn't have a shot, but the defining moments came during caution period with around 100 laps to go.
Larson chose to stay out on 30-lap old tires while Elliott pitted from the lead, taking four fresh tires and dropping to seventh place for the restart. Hamlin pitted as well, but he only took two fresh right-sides, which allowed him to restart ahead of Elliott in sixth. In truth, Hamlin's shot was already over as this call ultimately put him in a sort of purgatory where he was able to challenge some of those who stayed out, but didn't really gain any ground as the fast cars with four fresh tires overtook him as well.
Three champions fighting for one transfer spot
Elliott, to his credit, marched all the way to the front and was set to challenge his Hendrick Motorsports teammate head-on in the battle for the win. Over the course of the final 87-lap run, Larson faded and Elliott was able to pass him for the lead with just 25 laps to go.
He may have thought this race was his to lose, but another driver with fresh tires was closing fast from several seconds back. Defending NASCAR Cup champ Ryan Blaney had both the best long-run car and better tires in a combination that made him extremely formidable. It was now three champions fighting for one transfer spot. Blaney wasted no time, shoving his way past Larson, and although they were on the same strategy, Elliott could do little to withstand him after burning off his rears in his earlier pursuit of Larson. Blaney snatched the lead away with 14 laps to go and never looked back.
Elliott finished second, Larson third, and Hamlin fifth -- all were eliminated.
"I was pushing really hard trying to get to the No. 5 [Larson]," said Elliott after the race."I just felt like Ryan [Blaney] had been really good. I was scared to give him an opportunity to get to the No. 5 first. I just really wanted to try to get the lead. And then you never know, maybe a caution comes out or something. It just didn’t work out for us"
When asked in a later interview what he needed in the closing laps, Elliott quipped:"A new set of rear tires would have done me a lot of good."
The title favorite falls
While Elliott has been one the most consistent drivers all, it was Larson who asserted himself as the title favorite. But much like 2020 with Kevin Harvick, the driver with the objectively strongest year did not even get a shot at the crown.
When the final caution flag flew, perhaps Larson should have chosen to pit with Elliott. He was strong enough to hold the lead for as long as he did and perhaps fresh rubber could have salvaged his title hopes.
Larson has more wins than any other driver this year, but we could certainly look back at all of the race wins he almost had as the moments that changed the trajectory of his season. Just two more wins would have granted him enough bonus points to advance into the final four. There's also the five points left on the table from the regular season title battle, which he only missed out on due to not making it to Charlotte in time after contesting the Indianapolis 500. It's a lot of little things that added up for the No. 5, and unfortunately for him, the math just didn't work out.
"This whole Round of 8 has been a fight," said Larson following the race. "From the first stage at Las Vegas on, it’s been a fight. I feel like we made the right pit call to give ourselves the best opportunity. I’m proud of my team; the car, the pit crew, everyone at Hendrick Motorsports. We just didn’t have enough."
No matter what happens next weekend, he will end the 2024 season with the most wins and laps led, but he can place no higher than fifth in the standings.
A valiant fight but no reward for Hamlin
While Larson's exit is shocking, the end of Hamlin's title run felt expected. It's been a bumpy playoffs for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota from pit road errors to conservative strategies that backfired and just a curious lack of race-winning speed. He also had to overcome more than any other playoff driver on Sunday. When a stuck throttle destroyed the rear of his car in Cup practice, the team spent hours making repairs before race day. He charged from the rear of the field in an admirable effort.
"Just a fourth or fifth place car today and that's kind of where we hung out," said Hamlin, who will still have a shot at the Bill France Cup on the owner's side of things. "Even when we were at our best, it was just good enough to keep up."
Hamlin, the winningest driver in NASCAR Cup history without a title, hasn't won a race since April. He feels lack of speed is what cost them more than anything, noting: "That's something you gotta have at the end of the season." This is the third consecutive year his playoff run has ended one-race shy of the championship race and at 43 years old, one has to wonder how many more chances he'll have.
It's strange to look at the split standings after Martinsville as one might mistakingly believe that those who are eliminated are the real Championship 4 based on the names. They very well could have been, but a surprise fuel-mileage win by Joey Logano in Vegas and a stunning last-lap pass by Reddick at Homestead created a narrow path none of them were able to navigate. Bell certainly tried, but we know how that worked out.
