The Detroit Lions rallied furiously from a 1-6 start in 2022 to finish 9-8. Now the world awaits what they can do in the follow-up season.
There isn’t a lot of historical data to pore over to research how teams that finished 9-8 did the following season. The 2022 campaign was just the second with 17 games after decades of NFL teams only playing 16 per season.
Here’s a look at how the teams who went 9-8 in 2021, the first season of 17 games, wound up performing in the 17 games of 2022, as well as how they built to the 9-8 from the 2020 year.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins fell back to 9-8 after finishing 10-6 in 2020. What is compelling from a Detroit perspective is how Miami wound up at 9-8 in 2021.
The 2021 Dolphins were 1-7 at one point, owning the worst point differential in the NFL after eight weeks. Their passing offense was mired near the bottom, and the defense was inconsistent.
Then, much like the ’22 Lions, the proverbial switch flipped to the “on” position. Miami reeled off seven straight wins on the back of the best scoring defense in the league over that timeframe. Just like the Lions, a late-season humbling, inexplicable blowout loss (34-3 at Tennessee in Week 17) ruined their playoff potential. They would win the finale over New England (a playoff team at 10-7).
How did Miami keep the momentum of the huge late-season surge? In a word, acceptably.
The Dolphins finished 9-8 once again in 2022, this time making the postseason. They did that despite a head coaching change and a sharp decline in defense (16th to 25th in points per game allowed). Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins then gave the Buffalo Bills a major scare in Miami’s first postseason appearance since the 2016 campaign.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts rode the Carson Wentz rollercoaster to a 9-8 finish in 2021. That came on the heels of an 11-5 finish in 2020, which was Philip Rivers’ final season in Indianapolis.
Like the ’21 Dolphins and the ’22 Lions, these Colts got out of the gate slowly. Indianapolis was 1-4 before their defense settled into being a top-10 unit and the inconsistent Wentz stopped turning the ball over. Sounds familiar, eh?
The 2022 Colts could not sustain the success. A change in quarterback to veteran Matt Ryan didn’t work, and the lack of a viable passing threat stymied Jonathan Taylor and the run game. Indianapolis fired coach Frank Reich after a 3-5-1 start, replacing him with Colts OL legend Jeff Saturday. They won Saturday’s debut but then lost the final seven games, giving up a league-worst 32 points per game in that span. The 4-12-1 finish a year after going 9-8 is more indicative of the veteran Colts’ window slamming shut than it is a young team not being able to hang onto successes.
Los Angeles Chargers
The 2021 Chargers finished 9-8 in coach Brandon Staley’s first season at the helm. Staley’s team ranked 5th in scoring offense but 29th in scoring defense en route to the 9-8 finish. The 2022 Lions finished 9-8 while ranking 5th in scoring offense and 28th in scoring defense. That instantly seizes the attention.
Los Angeles saw the defense uptick to 22nd in 2022 thanks to the development of a young core and a savvy addition of veteran Khalil Mack. The offense regressed a bit back to 13th as QB Justin Herbert had to deal with former Lions coordinator Joe Lombardi, who largely validated why Detroit dumped him years earlier. Even with cycling through three different kickers and getting just five games from former No. 1 pick and All-Pro Joey Bosa, the ’22 Chargers trended up into a 10-7 finish and a playoff berth — a wild card matchup they led 27-0 before ultimately Charger-ing to lose to the Jaguars 31-30.
Philadelphia Eagles
The 2021 Eagles rose up to 9-8 after an unexpected down year in 2020. Quarterback Carson Wentz devolved and the NFC East champs in 2019 plummeted to a last place, 4-11-1 finish heading into 2021.
Changing to Jalen Hurts at quarterback and rookie head coach Nick Sirianni in ’21. They started slowly, bringing a 2-5 record into a Halloween visit to Ford Field. Their 44-6 annihilation of the Lions that day was the springboard to a strong finish. The Eagles got back to the postseason with the 9-8 finish, bowing out to the Buccaneers and Tom Brady in the wild card round.
The Eagles doubled down on Hurts for 2022, and it really paid off. Adding a premium wideout in A.J. Brown and stealing versatile DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson (now in Detroit) from the Saints were brilliant moves by the front office, catapulting the Eagles to a 14-3 finish and an NFC Championship. Philadelphia’s follow-up to the 9-8 finish is the Lions’ goal for 2023.
New Orleans Saints
The 2021 Saints had an interesting path to their 9-8 finish. Sean Payton’s crew started 5-2 with Jameis Winston taking over at quarterback from the retired Drew Brees, who led New Orleans to a 12-4 finish and a division title in 2020.
Winston got hurt, and the Saints promptly lost five games in a row. The defense then really tightened things up, allowing just 59 points in the final five games. New Orleans won four of those to arrive at the 9-8 mark, missing out on the postseason thanks to a weird late-season blowout loss to the Dolphins where the Saints offense netted just 164 total yards.
Coach Payton moved into the broadcast booth, replaced by Dennis Allen for 2022. Andy Dalton (mostly) took over for Winston at QB, too. The defense remained in the top 10, but the inconsistent offense and subpar special teams doomed the Saints to a 7-10 follow-up season. That wasn’t a bad finish given the radical changes, and it makes their outcome the least analogous to the Lions’ situation.
