Max Verstappen has been under immense pressure in 2024, but after a breathtaking win at the Brazilian Grand Prix, he has firmly planted himself at the top of the Formula One drivers’ standings. Not only does he lead by 62 points entering the final three races of the season, but he can also clinch a fourth straight world championship at this weekend’s Las Vegas Grand Prix.
Verstappen faced a legitimate challenge from McLaren’s Lando Norris over the summer and into the fall portion of the 2024 campaign. However, with his advantage now as sizable as it is and only 86 drivers’ points remaining across the final three rounds, the Red Bull driver can slam the door shut.
Here’s how Verstappen can leave Las Vegas with another world championship and everything else there is to know about the title fight.
How can Verstappen win the drivers’ championship at the Las Vegas Grand Prix?
Going into Brazil, Verstappen’s hold on the lead in the standings was tenuous. But after climbing the grid from 17th to first in the rainy conditions in São Paulo, the Red Bull driver leads by a comfortable margin.
As mentioned, 86 points remain up for grabs for the drivers across the final three race weekends. To achieve maximum points, a driver would need to win the Grands Prix in Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, post the fastest lap time in each of those three races and win the sprint race in Qatar.
Given that Verstappen already has a 62-point advantage, he doesn’t need to be perfect down the stretch. In fact, all he needs to do is beat Norris head-to-head in Las Vegas and he would retain his world title.
Additionally, if Norris is unable to outscore Verstappen by at least three points at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, then the Red Bull driver would still win the championship. That includes a scenario in which Verstappen fails to score, meaning that Norris would need to finish eighth in the race, or ninth while also earning the point for fastest lap.
What does Norris need to do to beat Verstappen?
Though the mountain is steep, Norris is still capable of winning the world championship outright, though he would need to be practically flawless down the stretch. Not to mention that he would need some help from Verstappen along the way.
At one point during the season, Norris seemed to be a true challenger to the three-time defending world champion. The 25-year-old McLaren driver outperformed his Red Bull counterpart for much of the summer and narrowed the gap down to 44 points after the São Paulo Sprint. Then, he started on pole position for the Brazilian Grand Prix and finished in sixth, dealing perhaps the fatal blow to his title hopes.
Norris can at least extend the fight by beating Verstappen by three points or more this weekend. The maximum dent he could put into the Red Bull driver’s lead is 26 points, with a victory and the fastest lap of the race. Still, that would leave Norris 36 points behind with 60 points available across the last two race weekends in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Even if Verstappen failed to finish in the points in Vegas and in both the sprint race and Grand Prix in Qatar, he would be guaranteed to have a lead over Norris going into the finale. That result also seems unlikely, seeing as the 27-year-old Red Bull driver hasn’t finished outside of the top six in any race this season.
Here’s another look at what Norris needs to do to keep his championship hopes alive in Las Vegas:
Can anyone else beat Verstappen and Norris?
While Norris and McLaren have provided the biggest challenge to the supremacy of Verstappen and Red Bull, other teams have gotten involved from race to race. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz have led an impressive turnaround by Ferrari, while Lewis Hamilton and George Russell won three races in four outings over the summer. Oscar Piastri, Norris’s McLaren teammate, has also impressed in his second season in F1.
Though a whopping seven different drivers have won races in 2024, no one else is capable of winning the world championship going into the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Leclerc, currently 86 points shy of Verstappen, is almost mathematically able to catch the leaders with 86 points still available. However, even if he achieved maximum points in the final three race weekends and Verstappen failed to score at all, the two drivers would be tied and Leclerc would still lose on the victory-count tiebreaker. Verstappen has won eight races this year and will hold that tiebreaker over any other competitor. Leclerc has just three wins this season.
What about the constructors’ championship battle?
Though the drivers’ championship battle may not be as close in the final few races as previously anticipated, the team title fight is shaping up nicely. Norris may be behind Verstappen individually, but thanks to his combined effort with Piastri, McLaren holds an advantage headed to Vegas.
Ferrari trails the constructors’ championship leaders by 36 points going into the last three races, while Red Bull is 49 points shy. A total of 147 points remain up for grabs, meaning that all three teams have a real chance to hoist a trophy—and a sizable payday—at the end of the season.
Despite its advantage, McLaren can’t close out the team title in Las Vegas. The maximum number of points a single team can score in Sin City is 44, so even if Ferrari went scoreless, the gap would only be up to 80 points with two races—and 103 points—remaining.
All three teams still have a chance to win the constructors’ championship, but what happens in Las Vegas should illuminate the true favorite. With only a few more opportunities to score points and a tripleheader on deck, there won’t be much time for the contenders to make adjustments, making what happens this weekend all the more crucial.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Max Verstappen Can Win His Fourth F1 World Championship at the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
