Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi now expect the U.S. economy to add 46,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, up signifcantly from the 22,000 that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recorded for August. This is based on traders placing the odds of the U.S. economy adding more than 25,000 nonfarm payrolls at at 68%, the odds of the economy adding more than 50,000 nonfarm payrolls at 47%, and the odds of the economy adding more than 75,000 nonfarm payrolls at just 23%.
While still modest by historical standards, this expected uptick indicates a stabilizing labor market after months of deceleration. Traders are pricing in a “soft” but positive print – reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the official release on Friday, Oct. 3.
