Reform has enjoyed an uninterrupted lead in national opinion polls since May 2025, polling ahead of all other parties more than 170 times, according to Press Association analysis.
Labour led the polls in the months immediately after the July 2024 general election, with the Conservatives in second place and Reform third.
But Labour’s share of the vote began to slide towards the end of 2024 while Reform’s numbers increased, with the Tories also seeing a fall.
Reform polled ahead of Labour on a few occasions in January and February 2025, though the party had not yet established a consistent lead and sometimes were ranked second, in front of Labour but behind the Conservatives.
It was only in early May 2025 – around the time of the last set of local elections – that Reform pulled in front of both parties.
Since then, Reform has been ahead in the polls at least 173 times.
This is based on figures compiled by the Press Association using data published regularly by the following polling organisations: BMG, FindOutNow, FocalData, Ipsos, JL Partners, More in Common, Opinium, Survation, TechneUK and YouGov.
Reform’s lead grew from an average of five to six percentage points in May and June 2025 to reach nine to 10 points by September 2025, and has remained broadly at this level ever since.
The latest poll averages, for the week ending February 15 2026, show Reform on 29%, Labour and the Conservatives tied on 19%, the Greens on 15% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%.
