As the ground war in Gaza begins, the contours of the plan to defeat Hamas are emerging. The strategy of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) focuses on isolating Gaza City and the northern region of the coastal strip, a deliberate approach influenced by U.S. pressure on Israel to limit civilian casualties and Israel’s recognition of the complexities associated with a full-scale ground incursion against a well-entrenched defense. The coming weeks will therefore likely focus on encirclement and attrition, rather than the block-by-block assault U.S. forces chose as their method of attack during the first and second battles of Fallujah in 2004.
The IDF concept reflects the nature of the kind of fighting required in Gaza: urban warfare in packed-in conditions against an underground force. This overview of IDF strategy was based on interviews with three high-ranking sources in the IDF who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about operations. The Israeli strategy appears sequential and intricate, involving raids, intelligence gathering, and holding cleared pockets. From these pockets, IDF troops plan to strike at Hamas leaders and then withdraw back to the cleared areas to request air support. If it succeeds as planned, this process will allow a slow building-out of pockets removed from Hamas control.
It will take time: The senior IDF officers I spoke with believe the ground war in Gaza City will stretch for many months. The cycle of locating, isolating, constricting, and then eliminating Hamas commanders will grind on slowly. The IDF will chip away at the top tier of the militant group. Meanwhile, these limited strikes will also reduce Hamas’s capacity to manufacture and deploy missiles, rockets, and armed drones. Though more time-consuming than the approach used by the IDF during Operation Protective Edge, the 50-day series of direct assaults on entrenched positions and tunnel networks in July and August 2014, this approach introduces far less risk—to both IDF troops and Palestinian civilians. The 2014 operation, initiated in response to a relentless barrage of missiles, rockets, and mortars aimed at civilian areas in Israel, began with an intense IDF aerial bombardment during the first week. Having failed to deter Hamas, it was followed by a comprehensive ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Now, Israel seeks regime change rather than deterrence. The current approach will take much longer.
