Hamas has used “increasingly sophisticated” tactics against Israeli forces since the ceasefire in the Gaza strip ended on December 1, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank. As the conflict is increasingly focused in southern Gaza, the Palestinian Islamist group is also deploying more advanced weapons, including explosive drones and anti-tank ammunition.
As Israeli tanks rolled into southern Gaza on Sunday, the second stage of Israel’s ground offensive in the Palestinian enclave began, bringing with it a new set of challenges for Israel’s troops and what appears to be a new military strategy from Hamas.
Post-ceasefire, the Islamist group and allied Palestinian militants look to have upgraded their weaponry and adapted their tactics “based on lessons learned during the past month of fighting in the Gaza Strip”, according to a report released on December 3 by the ISW.
Upgraded weapons
One of the most notable changes is Hamas’s increased use of explosively formed penetrators (EFP) – projectile explosives designed to penetrate armour, even when fired from great distances. The weapons, which were used just twice in October and November, have been deployed five times since December 1, according to the institute.
Of the three types of EFP in use today, the most common “detonate and launch steel shrapnel in all directions, having a deadly impact typically within a 10-40 metre radius”, said Alexandre Vautravers, a security expert at the Global Studies Institute at the University of Geneva.
Details in the ISW report do not specify the type of EFP being used by Hamas, but indicate they are more likely to be a second or third type commonly used as anti-tank ammunition. Both hold specially shaped projectiles that are capable of “piercing very thick armour or fortifications”, Vautravers said.
Older weaponry is no match for Israel’s Trophy defence system developed in the late 2000s to “intercept projectiles before they hit the armoured vehicle”, said Omri Brinner, a specialist in Middle Eastern geopolitics with the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona. He added, however, that such protection is “not installed on every tank model".
But more modern EFP – such as those Hamas is thought to have used – can be “projected at hypersonic speeds, making them capable of piercing armour without being intercepted by Trophy or similar systems”, said Vautravers.
Questions remain over how Hamas gained access to such advanced weaponry tailored to penetrate Israeli systems. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the EFP that Hamas uses are made in the Gaza Strip.
Along with anti-tank ammunition, the ISW report includes video footage released by Hamas on December 2 showing its fighters using one-way attack drones to target Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip.
This marks another technical advance in the group’s military capability. “Hamas has been developing drones for decades and have already used them, but never effectively and mainly for training purposes,” said Veronika Poniscjakova, a specialist in military aspects of the Israel-Palestinian conflict at the University of Portsmouth in the UK.
Going forward, Hamas could use a similar strategy to that which Israel has used with its air strikes in northern and southern Gaza, deploying kamikaze drones to strike Israeli forces "before direct confrontation", said Poniscjakova.
New tactics
As well as improved weaponry, Hamas also looks to be enacting a new plan of action against Israel in southern Gaza.
“Hamas and the other Palestinian militias have shifted from conducting a delaying operation to conducting a deliberate defence,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War.
Operations in the north aimed to slow Israeli progress “to provide Hamas time to move its leaders and military materiel from the northern Gaza strip to the southern part of the strip”, it added.
Now that the battleground has moved south, a “shift in tactics suggests that Hamas and Palestinian militias are preparing to become decisively committed to defending against the Israeli ground operation”.
A more directly confrontational approach from Hamas may be born of necessity. If Hamas was able to shift its operations south as fighting raged in northern Gaza, now “there is no other place to escape to", Poniscjakova said.
Hamas may also be able to operate more boldly in the south than the north. Brinner says it is where the groups’ main ammunition and weapon depots are located, and there is also strong popular support for Hamas especially in Khan Younis, the hometown of the group’s two main leaders in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif.
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“In the northern Gaza Strip, we have seen Hamas operating more like a guerrilla force – avoiding the big battles, slipping away and then re-emerging to attack and slip away again,” said Ahron Bregman, specialist in security issues in the Middle East at Kings College London.
“But this tactic might change when the Israelis operate in the southern Gaza Strip. There's strong Hamas support there, so they might resist more strongly.” This could mean a return to the group’s traditional organisational structure divided into “formations of battalions, brigades and so on”, Bregman said.
“The Israelis are also less familiar with the southern Gaza Strip than with the north,” Bregman said, and they are increasingly under pressure from the international community to limit the soaring civilian death toll in Gaza.
“The Israeli Defence Force, because it is more crowded in the south at the moment, could use less fire power lest it kills too many civilians,” Bergman added.
Prolonging fighting
It may be too early to say whether the incidents observed in the past few days are the beginning of a more advanced military strategy from Hamas. “There are indications of something happening, but we cannot say yet [whether] Hamas has more sophisticated tactics in general,” said Brenner.
There is as yet little evidence to measure the success of recent kamikaze drone attacks launched by Hamas, according to Poniscjakova.
But almost two months into the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, clashes look set to intensify. “The heavy fighting is ahead of us,” said Brinner. “The confrontations will be more intense and Israel's advance more difficult."
Poniscjakova believes the greatest weapon at Hamas’s disposal is drawing out the fighting for as long as possible. “Time is Hamas’s best friend. The longer the war lasts, the more civilian casualties there will be, which works in Hamas’s favour because it degrades Israel’s image," she said.
The objective for the militant group is also markedly different from that of Israel. “Hamas doesn't have to score big victories over the Israelis,” said Bregman. “All it has to do is to be able to stand on its [own two] feet when this war is over. A Hamas victory is to be able to say, ‘We are still here’.”
This article was adapted from the original in French.
