DALLAS — The sizzling dog days of Texas summer aren’t stopping Gov. Greg Abbott and Beto O’Rourke from mobilizing voters in the hot race for governor.
The summer before a fall election season can be slow for grass-roots politics as candidates try to raise money and marshal resources for the unofficial stretch run that starts after Labor Day.
But Abbott and O’Rourke have already jump-started their ground operations, signaling the marquee contest on Texas’ midterm election ballot will be a hard-fought tactical war with battlefields across the state. Sunday marked 100 days before the midterm elections.
Voter turnout is key for both campaigns.
Abbott has had one of the most tumultuous terms in Texas history, having to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, a winter storm that left millions without power, several mass shootings, and challengers in the Republican primary.
But Texas has considerably more Republican voters than Democratic, according to estimates from political operatives in both parties. So if Abbott can effectively turn out his GOP base, he’ll win. But unlike in previous years, the governor has been under intense criticism and may have to mollify some voters before November.
In his second run for statewide office, O’Rourke comes into the governor’s race with a stout volunteer army and solid fundraising. To combat the disparity between the number of Republican and Democratic voters, the former El Paso congressman has to not only have a robust turnout from his base, but find support from independent voters and some Republicans to win.
That could be difficult for O’Rourke, who may have a tougher time courting independents and soft Republicans than he did in his unsuccessful 2018 Senate bid against Republican Ted Cruz.
“This is an election that will be decided far more by turning out the base and supporters, rather than persuading undecided voters,” said Rice political scientist Mark Jones. “Swing voters are few and far between in Texas today. Both campaigns have probably identified the people that they need to ensure victory.”
Abbott, who is seeking his third term as governor, has the best political operation of any Republican in the state. Though he wasn’t on the ballot in 2020, Abbott kept his campaign rolling, partnering with several conservative groups to mobilize voters.
With his help, Republicans turned back an effort from Democrats to seize control of the Texas House, while Sen. John Cornyn and former President Donald Trump cruised to statewide victories.
Abbott hopes for similar success from his ground forces this year, with a boost from a $100 million television and digital ad campaign.
“Every day we get 200 people out there knocking on doors,” said Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief political strategist. “We are laying the foundation for our political operation. We’ve been ramping up since the primary.”
For his part, O’Rourke has amassed close to 80,000 volunteers, many of them veterans of the Senate campaign. To personally reach voters and sign up even more volunteers, O’Rourke has embarked on a road trip that will take him to 70 Texas cities in 49 days.
“Part of this tour is signing up new volunteers at every single event,” said Chris Evans, O’Rourke’s campaign spokesperson. “That’s something you can only do by going to the communities.”
Turning out conservatives
Abbott’s responsibilities as governor prevent him from taking the long campaign swings that O’Rourke has conducted. He’s picked his spots.
Abbott was the keynote speaker last month at a Republican Party reception in a West Texas county, Pecos, where local party leaders don’t have the resources of their counterparts in larger counties.
“We’ve been doing a number of these over the last few years, going out to counties that don’t really have a Republican infrastructure,” Carney said. “We’ve done the first Republican dinners that some of these places have ever had.”
A day earlier, O’Rourke was in Pecos and Midland as part of his tour.
Aside from rallying his base, Abbott is courting Hispanic voters. In 2020, Trump and Republicans made strong inroads with voters in the Rio Grande Valley, winning five of the 18 counties with a Hispanic population of 80% or more that he lost in 2016.
Abbott hopes to use his ground game to continue that momentum and persuade Hispanic voters away from supporting Democrats, which they have historically done in Texas.
“We’ve expanded our universe of targets to engage beyond the normal sort of Hispanic voter that you have in the Republican primary,” Carney said. “We’ve doubled our universe of Hispanic voters.”
Carney said O’Rourke and Democrats are hampered with inflation and President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, while Republican messaging about tried-and-true issues, such as fully funding police departments and border security, hits home with conservative voters.
“Border security was an issue, but it wasn’t red hot,” Carney said. “It’s smoking today.”
Expanding Democratic Party base
Democrats wanted O’Rourke at the top of the ticket because he has the ability to organize and raise large amounts of campaign cash.
He has not disappointed the party faithful.
Campaign aides say the volunteers are working shifts, not simply signing their names.
O’Rourke is known to spend hours taking pictures with rally participants. After their selfies, the supporters sign up to volunteer with the campaign. They supplement his 200-person paid field operation, knocking on doors, making calls and writing letters to voters. Some analysts believe an enthusiastic volunteer base is more vital than paid staffers.
“We are well ahead of anywhere we were in 2018, and a big piece of that is that we already have this organizing infrastructure in place,” Evans said. “While Beto is going to 70 communities over 49 days, our organizing team is going to be going to 100 different communities on a big tour to recruit volunteers to get them in place and trained up and ready to go in the fall.”
Evans said O’Rourke has also developed a plan to mobilize support on Texas college campuses.
“We have paid organizing staff on 50 campuses across the state,” Evans said. “We know how much young people and college students contributed to the 2018 campaign, with a 500% increase in turnout, so we are already tapped into that. We’re not waiting for the fall.”
He said their grass-roots operation would offset whatever Abbott spends on television ads, which could approach $100 million.
“We are matching that $100 million by doing 100 million voters contacted,” Evans said.
Jones, the Rice political scientist, said that polls show many Texas voters have already made up their minds.
“More than 90% of both Abbott and Beto voters are 100% locked into their choice right now,” Jones said. “And this is July.”
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