Max Verstappen is on the cusp of a fourth consecutive Formula One world championship and could even clinch the title under the bright lights of Las Vegas this weekend.
The Red Bull driver produced one of his best-ever performances to win from 17th on the grid in Brazil three weeks ago, claiming his 62nd grand prix victory and in doing so stretching his lead to 62 points.
With three races and one sprint race remaining, it is a tall order now for Norris – the only driver within statistical reach of Verstappen – to launch a shock comeback.
Verstappen will be looking to match the title tally of Sebastian Vettel and Alain Prost with a fourth crown, but how could it happen this weekend in Sin City?
The Independent looks at all the title permutations ahead of round 22 of the 2024 season:
There are now just 86 points available across the next three races in Vegas, Qatar (including the final sprint race of the season) and Abu Dhabi.
By the end of the weekend in Vegas, there will be just 60 points left to claim.
That means that if Verstappen simply finishes above Norris in Vegas, he will be crowned the 2024 champion.
The Dutchman would also seal the title if both drivers fail to score a point.
Verstappen will also win the 2024 title if Norris does not outscore the Red Bull driver by more than two points.
As a result, Verstappen will be world champion in Sin City if:
Norris must outscore Verstappen by three points or more to take the title race to Qatar.
Yet the McLaren driver will be eyeing a dream weekend in which Verstappen retires (or finishes outside the top-10) while he wins and sets the fastest lap.
Should this perfect scenario occur, the gap heading into Qatar would be 36 points. Norris would then need to outscore Verstappen over the course of the Qatar weekend by 11 points to take the title race to the final weekend.
However, Norris should also be looking over his shoulder, with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc just 24 points behind in the battle for second place.
What about the constructors’ title?
McLaren have not won a constructors’ crown since 1998 and with Norris’ individual pursuit now very unlikely, the focus will be on winning the constructors’ championship.
The papaya have a 36-point lead to Ferrari in second. Red Bull, in third, are a further 13 points behind.
The constructors’ race could therefore go down right to the very wire and the final race in Abu Dhabi on 8 December.
