Bristol Rovers left Prenton Park with a feeling of frustration after being held to a 1-1 draw by Tranmere Rovers on Saturday, but Joey Barton's Gas remain firmly in the League Two promotion mix with five games to play.
Their chances of automatic promotion may have taken a hit with Port Vale and Mansfield Town beating Oldham Athletic and Scunthorpe United respectively, but Barton's blues are not out of the race yet and are also well placed to take a spot in the play-offs.
Statistics and analytics experts FiveThirtyEight's predictive model, based on form and estimated squad values, gives the Gas a 57 per cent chance of making the play-offs – unchanged from the previous gameweek – and a 22 per cent chance of promotion – which has fallen eight per cent in the past week.
Rovers are currently sixth, five points adrift of the top three and while they are tipped to climb above Northampton Town, the statisticians conclude a run into the top three is unlikely. That could all change if the Gas rock up at Vale Park on Easter Monday and leave victorious, of course.
Here is how FiveThirtyEight predicts League Two will finish...
- Forest Green Rovers - 89 points
- Exeter City - 84 points
- Port Vale - 80 points
- Mansfield Town - 79 points
- Bristol Rovers - 75 points
- Salford City - 74 points (+19 GD)
- Newport County - 74 points (+14 GD)
- Northampton Town - 74 points (+14 GD)
- Sutton United - 73 points (+14 GD)
- Tranmere Rovers - 73 points (+11 GD)
- Swindon Town - 72 points
While Rovers are fifth favourites for promotion according to the analytics, the bookmakers are less keen on their prospects of going up this season. SkyBet has the Gas seventh in their League Two promotion market, and punters clearly see value in the price of 9/2 with Rovers' share of the betting market growing to 17 per cent from 12 per cent last week, making them level with Mansfield Town for the most-backed team in the division.
Odds are being offered again for league leaders Forest Green after they were held to a draw by Hartlepool United at the weekend, but at an incredibly short price there will be few takers.
Exeter City, meanwhile, solidified their grip on a place in the top three with a late winner at Carlisle United on Saturday, with the bookies viewing them as near certainties for promotion. Port Vale and Mansfield, meanwhile, are both odds-on to cross the threshold into League One.
Here are the latest League Two promotion odds, according to SkyBet...
- Forest Green Rovers - 1/1000
- Exeter City - 1/16
- Port Vale - 4/9
- Mansfield Town - 8/11
- Newport County - 3/1
- Northampton Town - 3/1
- Bristol Rovers - 9/2
- Salford City - 5/1
- Sutton United -11/2
- Swindon Town - 7/1
- Tranmere Rovers - 8/1
- Crawley Town - 1000/1
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