Bristol Rovers' hopes of automatic promotion were dented by Carlisle United on Saturday, but the Gas are still predicted to make the League Two play-offs.
The 1-0 defeat at Brunton Park saw the Gas slip from fourth to sixth in the standings with seven games to play, but Rovers rightly retain confidence generated by a superb run of form since the turn of the year and the statistical model created by FiveThirtyEight predicts Joey Barton's side will finish in the top seven at the end of the season.
Before the weekend's defeat, Rovers were tipped to finish third, edging Mansfield Town out of a play-off place on goal difference, but after the latest round of games the Gas are predicted to end the season sixth and face Darrell Clarke's Port Vale in the post-season.
The model, which is based on form and estimated squad values, gives Rovers a 49 per cent chance of reaching the play-offs and a 26 per cent chance of being promoted.
Here is how FiveThirtyEight predicts League Two will finish...
- Forest Green Rovers - 88 points
- Exeter City - 81 points
- Mansfield Town - 78 points
- Northampton Town - 77 points
- Port Vale - 76 points
- Bristol Rovers - 75 points
Swindon Town - 74 points
- Tranmere Rovers - 74 points
- Newport County - 73 points
- Salford City - 72 points
- Sutton United - 71 points
According to Oddschecker, Rovers are the most popular bet in the League Two promotion market, accounting for 11 per cent of bets after they slipped to 4/1 after Saturday's defeat. Forest Green Rovers are rated almost certainties to go up, priced at 1/250, and Exeter City and Mansfield Town are also odds-on chances, but the market remains unpredictable.
Here are the latest promotion odds, according to SkyBet...
- Forest Green Rovers - 1/250
- Exeter City - 2/9
- Mansfield Town - 10/11
- Northampton Town - 5/4
- Port Vale - 11/8
- Newport County - 9/4
- Swindon Town - 3/1
- Tranmere Rovers - 3/1
- Bristol Rovers - 4/1
- Sutton United - 13/2
- Salford City - 7/1
After Saturday's defeat, Barton made clear his belief that Rovers will muster the required response against Bradford City on Saturday.
"From our perspective, whenever we’ve had a poor performance or a poor result, we’ve responded," he said.
"Today, up until the final third, I thought we were really good and controlled away from home against one of the form teams in the division. It certainly didn’t look like the two teams at the top of the form table.
"I think we were markedly better in possession, but we’ve got to pick ourselves up again and it’s a tough game against Bradford on Saturday."
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