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Fortune
Fortune
Jessica Mathews

History suggests a tariff-induced downturn may cause a reckoning in the venture capital industry

abandoned horse toys laying in the grass (Credit: ADEM ALTAN/AFP—Getty Images)

There’s a mantra you learn about as a business journalist—follow the money.

It’s a mantra that feels especially important right now, with tariffs expected to go into effect tomorrow. The Nasdaq Composite has been teetering toward bear market territory for the first time since 2022 as companies gear up for sudden spikes in the costs of imported goods. There’s been a lot of chatter about which companies will suffer the most as a result. But if you sit in the world of the private markets, as many Term Sheet readers do, you’re probably looking at what’s happening through a very specific set of lenses—and they’re probably not rose-colored.  

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