Thanks to the preliminary peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, it’s no surprise that fossil-fuel giants like Petrobras (PBR) have suffered a steep decline in recent sessions. In the case of PBR stock, the security lost more than 14% of market value in the trailing month, leading to state-owned Brazilian petroleum company to be ranked as a Weak Sell.
However, there’s a common assumption within the financial publication sphere that the selloff could be overdone. Based on the mean reversion concept, it’s very possible that PBR stock could swing higher. Rather than justifying this positive rerating through Petrobras’ fundamentals, I’m going to make a bullish case using non-parametric conditional sequence simulation or path-dependent conditioning.
