Can you feel it? No, I’m not talking about the oppressive heat wave that’s all over the country, or the excitement over the next Taylor Swift show. I’m talking about the start of the 2023 fantasy football season! Fantasy managers are getting their cheat sheets and rankings together, preparing their list of sleepers and busts (all of which you can find in the SI Fantasy Draft Kit), and getting ready to dominate their drafts.
Part of that preparation is knowing where you’ll be picking in the draft. Of course, if you draw the top spot, you can choose from any player in the league. Having the No. 1 overall pick hasn’t been great in recent years, however. Just ask anyone who took Jonathan Taylor last season. The consensus No. 1 fantasy pick going into the 2022 season finished as the 33rd-best running back – RB33! – in fantasy.
The previous two seasons saw Christian McCaffrey go first, and he ranked RB38 and RB54, respectively, while missing significant time due to injuries. The last consensus No. 1 pick who went on to finish first in points at his position was Antonio Brown … in 2016. A.B. did what Taylor and CMC couldn’t do, and that was meet the expectations of being the top choice.
John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated (McCaffrey); Jeffrey Becker/USA Today Sports (Jefferson); Jason Hanna/Getty Images (Kelce);Ed Mulholland/USA Today Sports (Chase)
Our 2023 drafts will be similar to the 2016 versions in that a wide receiver and not a running back is the consensus top selection. That wideout is Justin Jefferson
The Vikings superstar is coming off a career season in the stat sheets, posting 128 catches for 1,809 yards with eight touchdowns and 368.7 PPR points. He also led his position in yards after the catch and routes run. Jefferson also ranked eighth in yards after contact and was 10th in missed tackles per reception.
What’s more, J.J. has seen his fantasy totals go up in each of his first three years in the league, and he’ll remain highly prolific in a Minnesota offense that will throw the ball a ton. Being that he’s a receiver, Jefferson is also far less likely to fall prey to a long-term injury, at least compared to runners, which is another benefit.
There are some fantasy managers who might be concerned about Jefferson’s ability to duplicate his immense 2022 totals, however. In fact, I wrote about how history has shown us that 1,700-yard receivers have not fared as well in the next season. With that in mind, there are three other players you could audible to at the top rather than select Jefferson. The first alternative would be the aforementioned CMC.
Brad Mangin/Sports Illustrated
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
McCaffrey finished last year ranked second in fantasy points among running backs, trailing only Austin Ekeler (who is also a candidate to be the top choice). In his time between Carolina and San Francisco, CMC recorded 85 catches, 1,880 yards from scrimmage, 13 touchdowns and 356.4 PPR points. In his nine games with the 49ers, he averaged 20.9 touches, 118.8 scrimmage yards and 23.7 PPR points.
If there’s a concern with McCaffrey, it’s durability. While he didn’t miss time last year, he did miss a combined 23 games in the previous two seasons due to injuries. If you’re still worried about that but you want a back with the top pick, you could also audible to Ekeler. He’s the top-scoring PPR runner over the last two years.
Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
For fantasy managers worried about Jefferson regressing after a huge season but still looking to draft a wideout No. 1, Chase is an option. One of the league’s elite, young players, he’s coming off a season in which he averaged more than 20 PPR points per game. He plays in one of the league’s most explosive offenses, has a tremendous rapport with his quarterback, Joe Burrow, and has yet to hit his statistical ceiling.
In the event that Chase isn’t your “Kupp” of tea, you could also take Cooper Kupp over Jefferson and Chase. He’s older than that duo and is coming off an injury-plagued season, though, so my preference is Chase ahead of Kupp.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
Kelce might be a far-fetched option with the top overall draft selection in the minds of some managers, but hear me out. He is easily the best tight end in fantasy football, which gives you an immediate advantage over the rest of the teams in your league. How big of a gap is it between Kelce and the next best tight end, you might ask?
Well, he scored 100 more points than No. 2 tight end in 2022, T.J. Hockenson. Also, Kelce has scored 1,440.8 combined PPR points in the last five years. No other tight end has scored more than 1,005! He hasn’t slowed down with age, either, as Kelce’s 316.3 points last season is the most he’s scored in his career.
When you also consider that the Chiefs lack playmaking wideouts (even more so than last season), there’s no reason to believe Kelce won’t put up 140-plus targets and 300-plus PPR points in his age-33 campaign.
Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 Strategy
Despite the arguments for CMC, Chase, Kelce and others, my top pick is still Jefferson. This is coming from someone who has almost always picked a running back at the top spot. There’s been a change in the fantasy community, and we’re seeing it from high-stakes leagues down to the family-and-friends leagues. The truth is that the NFL is a passing league, which of course will benefit wideouts. Also, running backs are more prone to getting hurt due to the nature of their position. This doesn’t mean you should avoid backs early, but there should be more viable fantasy starters on the board in the fourth and fifth rounds of most drafts.
In fact, fantasy managers who have the top pick could go with two more wideouts or another wideout and a tight end in the second and third rounds and still get runners like Javonte Williams, James Conner, J.K. Dobbins or Cam Akers in the fourth or fifth stanzas. It’s a strategy that will be utilized more often this season, and it makes a lot of sense when you consider the move toward receivers in the top 40-50 picks.
The goal, no matter where you’re picking, is to build a balanced team with few if any glaring weak spots. And in this new era of fantasy football, going wideouts early and waiting a few rounds for running backs can achieve this roster goal.
For more help in building the best possible team, be sure to check out the SI Draft Kit and player rankings, which are updated daily as news from training camp and the preseason breaks. You won’t find more in-depth coverage anywhere!
Check Out SI Fantasy’s 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit
