Bushfire season is nearing in Tasmania, and despite the wet weather experienced across much of the state in recent months, the Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) is predicting a normal bushfire season — and that means fires are expected.
It will be the first time Tasmania is relying on a new national fire danger rating system, and the TFS is urging residents to get familiar with how it operates as the weather heats up.
The adoption of the new system, which is being implemented across the country, comes off the back of the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements Report, which was presented to the governor-general in October 2020.
Previously, Tasmania's danger ratings were based on a model developed in the 1960s and known as the McArthur meter, which was not keeping up with modern technology and scientific advances, including failing to make use of the last 60 years of fire behaviour science.
What will it look like?
The new system was designed to be nationally consistent and simpler, making it quicker and easier for people to understand the predicted fire danger risk in their area.
The most obvious change is the decrease in the number of levels from six down to four: moderate, high, extreme and catastrophic.
Each of these levels comes with an associated call to action ranging from "plan and prepare" for a moderate rating, to "leave bushfire risk areas" for a catastrophic rating.
TFS chief officer Dermot Barry said this change reflected calls from the community, with significant social research involved in the system's development.
"People just wanted it simpler," he said.
"Having this, it's really straightforward and it combines with a call to action as well … so people start to turn their mind to what they need to do when they see those ratings.
"Essentially, if you're down here as a tourist, or whether you're visiting for work or whatever else, what you see and the systems that you rely on are exactly the same as they would be anywhere else on the mainland."
Despite having fewer danger levels, Mr Barry said the new system was guided by expanded information.
This includes an assessment of a much broader range of vegetation types, updated information being fed in from the Bureau of Meteorology about weather conditions, and improved fire behaviour understanding.
Regional information is also able to be viewed on the TFS website, so Tasmanians can look at the specific fire danger rating for their municipality.
"We are all aware of the devastating impact fires can have on communities," Mr Barry said.
"Using modern and consistent fire danger ratings, the AFDRS (Australian Fire Danger Rating System) provides action-oriented messaging designed to empower the community to make informed decisions to be prepared and safe."
The TFS is urging Tasmanians to head directly to its website to access the fire danger rating information — a move away from having the danger rating displayed on the traditional big metal signs in towns.
The TFS has also reiterated that fire danger ratings are used to describe the potential level of danger a community may face should a bushfire start, rather than the chance of a fire occurring.
They are in place to help Tasmanians appropriately prepare for the potentially dangerous conditions and to protect themselves and others.
If there is a bushfire, the Australian Warning System will provide advice and information.
What might the coming fire season look like?
Despite the La Niña weather system bringing consistent — and in some circumstances devastating — rainfall to the state, Chief Officer Barry said the TFS was still anticipating a standard bushfire season, with some fire activity expected.
He said this was particularly true for the West Coast, which he described as "as dry as we've seen it for a long time".
He said the TFS would continue to monitor conditions throughout the season, with all Tasmanians encouraged to start preparing now.
"We know for sure that we'll at least have a normal fire season and that means there will be times when there's fire in the landscape burning out of control, and everyone needs to be putting their mind down to the upcoming fire danger season and preparing," he said.
"Do your five-minute bushfire plan, know your area, prepare your homes, Clear — if you can — 30 metres around your home, clean your gutters.
"Everything people do in the community now will help us when there's a fire later."
To get to know the new fire danger rating system, visit www.fire.tas.gov.au.
