Hawaii vs. UNLV: Why The Warriors Can Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Warriors look to open Mountain West play with a road win over the surging Rebels. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire
An unexpectedly crucial conference clash.
WEEK 5: Hawaii Warriors (2-3) vs. UNLV Rebels (3-1)
WHEN: Saturday, September 30 — 10:00 AM HT/1:00 PM PT
WHERE: Allegiant Stadium; Las Vegas, NV
WEATHER: Mostly cloudy and breezy, high of 81 degrees (note: game indoors)
TV: Spectrum Pay-Per-View (Hawaii only) and Silver State Sports and Entertainment Network (southern Nevada only)
STREAMING: For college football fans on the mainland, the game can only be streamed using the Team1Sports application. That is available for download on Android and Apple devices and over-the-top platforms like Roku and Amazon Fire. Please note that the game will not be available on desktops or laptops.
RADIO: The Hawaii broadcast can be found and streamed on ESPN Honolulu or the Sideline Hawaii app, which is available on Google and Apple). The UNLV broadcast can be found on ESPN 1100 AM and 100.9 FM.
SERIES RECORD: Hawaii leads the all-time series, 19-13. In the last meeting on November 19, 2022, the Warriors defeated the Rebels, 31-25, in Honolulu.
LAST GAME: Hawaii defeated New Mexico State at home, 20-17, while UNLV beat UTEP on the road, 48-20.
WEBSITES: HawaiiAthletics.com, the official Hawaii athletics website | UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Hawaii | UNLV
ODDS: UNLV -11
SP+ PROJECTION: UNLV by 10.3
FEI PROJECTION: UNLV by 10.4
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UNLV 84.69% win probability (36.36-21.01)
Island Showdown Week 🍍
GAME INFO ➜ https://t.co/yYu0uzAxuT#BRADDAHHOOD x #GoBows pic.twitter.com/AAS9WUDueF
— Hawaii Football (@HawaiiFootball) September 27, 2023
The Hawaii Warriors managed to tally a pair of wins in non-conference play, but now the real work begins with a rivalry showdown against the UNLV Rebels to open Mountain West action.
Though the two teams have been conference mates since 2012, this is the first time the Warriors and Rebels have opened conference play together. It happens to be an important matchup for a few different reasons, as well: UNLV has come on strong to start 2023, rallying to defeat Vanderbilt two weeks ago and putting together a convincing road win over UTEP last Saturday, but they’ve also lost four of the last five in this series.
Can the Warriors hang on to the golden pineapple for another year? Here are the keys to doing just that against the Rebels.
Three Keys to a Hawaii Victory
1. Survive on third downs.
One area where the Rebels have been much more effective than the Warriors to date is in moving the chains on third downs. Through four games, UNLV ranks second among Mountain West offenses with a 52.4% conversion rate and third among conference defenses in allowing a 38.6% rate; by contrast, Hawaii ranks 11th and 10th, respectively (35.6% on offense, 46.9% on defense).
Needless to say, if the Warriors can keep close to even with the Rebels on this front, it could make a huge difference in a potential upset bid. It helps that Timmy Chang hasn’t been shy about staying aggressive in critical situations — Hawaii is also 9-of-15 on offensive fourth downs — but one bit of situational football through which they could seize an advantage is that much of the damage has been done by UNLV’s ground game: Doug Brumfield and Jayden Maiava have combined to generate 17 first downs on 37 third-down throws, though they also have three interceptions.
2. Make the quarterback uncomfortable.
A lot of what has made UNLV successful in the early going is that their passing game appears to be predicated on getting the ball out quickly. According to Pro Football Focus, both Brumfield and Maiava have averaged 2.42 seconds to throw, the second-lowest time among 18 Mountain West quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, but there is also a huge disparity in their pressure-to-sack rate.
Before he got hurt, Brumfield absorbed seven sacks in 54 dropbacks, but Maiava has taken only one sack in 78 dropbacks during his time on the field. While it remains to be seen who will start on Saturday afternoon (they’re listed with an “or” on the week’s two-deep and Brumfield is practicing, per head coach Barry Odom), it will be critical for Jonah Kahahawai-Welch, Ezra Emaivalo, and company to put the UNLV offensive line on its heels early and often to make plays.
3. Generate big plays with the passing game.
After leading the Mountain West in total takeaways last season, UNLV has picked up where it left off with nine more in four games thus far. That isn’t the only trend that has carried over from 2022, though, since the Rebels have allowed 24 passing plays of 20-plus yards after giving up 41 such plays a year ago.
There should be opportunities, then, for Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager to take some shots if his pass catchers can stretch the field. To date, he’s only generated a 20-yard pass play on 8.2% of his 208 attempts, but UNLV got pushed to the tune of 8.7 yards per attempt in non-conference play despite holding both the Commodores and Miners to a completion rate under 50%.
Prediction
Through five games, it’s safe to say that Hawaii has made incremental progress from Chang’s first year at the helm, but UNLV is a true litmus test for just how much juice this team has to be a real problem in conference play. It wouldn’t surprise to see them put up points against a Rebels defense that has already been pushed, especially through the air, but the difference will be in keeping UNLV from doing the same.
In that respect, this game is likely to play out a lot more like the Stanford and Vanderbilt games than Warriors fans may have. It won’t be a blowout, but expect the Rebels to reclaim the pineapple.
UNLV 38, Hawaii 24
