KEY POINTS
- Harris has tied with outgoing President Biden's peak odds on the platform
- Trump's odds are currently at 54%, but the figures have been down since the Pennsylvania attack
- Harris has not yet openly criticized nor expressed support for the crypto industry
Crypto traders on decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket have continuously been betting on who they think will win the presidency in November, and it appears some traders are turning toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris ties with Biden's peak odds
Data from Polymarket showed Thursday that some crypto traders are pushing up Harris' chances of winning. She tied with outgoing President Joe Biden's peak election odds at 45% before he stepped aside from the race, while Republican President Donald Trump's odds were at 53%.
Kamala Harris is now tied with Joe Biden's peak election odds at 45%. pic.twitter.com/lwXJegyF4J
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 1, 2024
As of writing, the vice president's odds retreated to 44%, while Trump's chances climbed by 1%.
Trump's Polymarket popularity in decline?
Two days before Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville, Trump's odds were as high as 64% compared to Harris' 32%. But since the attempted assassination on the former president last month during a Pennsylvania rally, his chances of winning in November, at least among Polymarket traders, have plunged by 18%.
Trump's odds are down 18% since he was shot. pic.twitter.com/1tTXL92Gf4
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 1, 2024
Mixed reactions to latest data
X users had mixed reactions to the latest data from Polymarket, which allows users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies to bet on future events across different industries such as culture, crypto, sports, and politics.
One user said the reason why Trump's odds are down is due to his non-stop talking, while another said the numbers were only an "incredible illustration of how intensely people did not want a second Biden term."
On Harris seemingly gaining traction in recent weeks, one user pointed out that "the higher you climb, the harder you fall," while another said the data only meant "she's still losing."
Harris leads Trump in key states
Outside the crypto space, a recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll revealed that Trump and Harris had a near tie across seven key states. In particular, the Democratic vice president secured 48%, while the GOP presidential candidate garnered 47% of the respondents' support.
Harris leads the business mogul in four states, including a significant 11-point lead in Michigan, while Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The two were evenly matched among Georgians.
Democrats making the shift
News of the Polymarket data came as more and more Democratic lawmakers expressed support for the crypto industry.
A total of 17 Democrats – 14 of them House members – recently urged the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to adopt a "forward-looking" approach toward digital assets, highlighting the industry's "outsized impact" on the upcoming elections.
Harris has yet to speak in depth about her views on crypto. She has neither openly criticized the emerging sector, nor has she publicly expressed support for it, but Democrats are widely perceived as having negative views of the industry.
