NFL WEEK 4
GREG COTE’S THURSDAY PICK
DOLPHINS (3-0) at BENGALS (1-2)
Line: CIN by 4.
Cote’s pick: CIN, 27-20. TV: 8:15 p.m. Thursday, Prime Video
Traveling on a short week, with a banged-up starting quarterback, after an emotional game against a division rival — this is not the classic recipe to produce a delicious result. But this is the Dolphins’ lot at Cincinnati on Thursday night in the NFL’s Week 4 kickoff. It’s why Miami, the AFC’s last unbeaten team, is in peril of falling. A sore back and tender ankle are pestering Tua Tagovailoa. Though indications are he will play and he says he plans to, it’s doubtful he will be 100%. WR Jaylen Waddle, CB Xavien Howard and S Brandon Jones also have been limited in practice. Howard’s healthy availability is especially critical, because Joe Burrow — whom Miami coach Mike McDaniel says has swagger and this week called “one of the true young flag bearers of our league” — has one of NFL’s premier wideout arsenals in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Cincy won AFC title last season over Kansas City. That’s why Tyreek Hill, now a Dolphin, said he “owes” Bengals CB Eli Apple. “I owe you, boy. Cheetah comin’,” Hill warned him, through the media. It might take a shootout for Miami to fashion an upset win. Dolphins’ best bet to contain Gals offense looks to be major pass pressure on Burrow, whose shaky offensive line already has allowed him to be sacked 15 times, tied for most of any QB. Passers always hog a game’s marquee, but a quiet key to this result might be which team’s ground game gets untracked. Joe Mixon (58-162, 2.8 average) has had a slow start for Cincy. For the Fins, ball control would both take a burden off a hobbled Tagovailoa and also help to keep Burrow off the field. Bottom line: Tua not fully fit and Burrow at home vs. a less-than-healthy Fins secondary tips the outcome.
[Note: Betting line courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.]
