MIAMI — It is time to address not the elephant in the room but the gazelle.
The rumors and speculation linking the Miami Dolphins and Lamar Jackson, the fleet and perhaps available quarterback — they are persistent, give ‘em that. They percolate in the background, but close enough to see and hear.
I know. Shake your head, roll eyes and here-we-go-again, right? I get it. I have spent the past three years advocating that Tua Tagovailoa is good and worth an investment of faith even as the Dolphins made ill-fated, shadow efforts to woo first Deshaun Watson and then Tom Brady behind Tagovailoa’s back while he struggled off and on his first two seasons.
Then Watson signed with Cleveland. Then Brady retired, for real this time. Then Tagovailoa blossomed in Year 3, leading the NFL in passer rating when healthy (albeit a big if, that health thing).
So, at last, QB stability in Miami, right?
“He’s our starting quarterback and will be next season,” said general manager Chris Grier of Tagovailoa last month.
But Jackson’s disenchantment in Baltimore is not going away, His wanting Miami as a possible landing spot isn’t, either.
And — unlike Watson and Brady — Jackson is worth pursuing, or at least kicking tires on the possibility.
Watson had a similar upside to Jackson (youth, dual threat), but carried the onerous baggage of those dozens of lawsuits by women alleging sexual impropriety in massage sessions. A serial creep at best, if you believe those many accusers. Good riddance when he became the Browns’ problem.
Brady? Too old, as if that weren’t obvious. Miami needed a long-term answer at the most important position, not a temporary fix.
The delicious irony here is that Fins owner Stephen Ross’ infatuation first with Watson and then Brady now complicates any possibility of actually making a deal for Jackson.
Here’s how:
— 1. Cleveland panicked and gave Watson a five-year, $230 million contract fully guaranteed in part because other teams, led by Miami, were also after him. That in turn led Jackson to reject a Ravens five-year offer of $250 million with “only” $133 million guaranteed because he wanted it all guaranteed. That puts his future in Baltimore in doubt but also makes him a much more costly and risky get for the Dolphins or any other team pursuing him.
— 2. Ross got busted by the NFL for tampering in the back-channels chase after Brady (and coach Sean Payton) and Miami must now forfeit its 2023 first-round draft pick — the loss of a huge bargaining chip in any trade to acquire Jackson.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh called it “200 percent” likely (a mathematical impossibility) that Jackson would remain in Baltimore, but others seem much less certain unless the Ravens change course and offer a full guarantee.
“When you have something good, you don’t play with it. You don’t take chances losing it. You don’t neglect it,” Jackson wrote recently on his Instagram in a clear warning to his team. “When you have something good, you pour into it. You appreciate it. Because when you take care of something good, that good thing takes care of you too.”
Jackson was born and raised in South Florida, just north of Miami. He famously liked a Tweet by a Miami fan that depicted him in a Dolphins uniform. And that was before the Fins made the blockbuster trade to acquire Tyreek Hill and pair him with Jaylen Waddle.
If Baltimore won’t give Jackson the contract he demands, “Maybe a Lamar-for-Tua trade makes sense,” one unnamed NFL executive told The Athletic.
How might that happen?
NBC Sports’ Mike Florio suggested a likelihood the Ravens will apply a nonexclusive franchise tag to Jackson if they cannot sign him long-term. That would enable other teams to negotiate with Jackson and sign him to an offer sheet. If the Ravens declined to match the offer sheet they would be due two first-round draft picks from the team that made the offer.
This is where Miami not having a ‘23 first-round pick complicates things. But! If Jackson wanted Miami and elected to not sign an offer sheet until after the April 27-29 draft (and Baltimore did not match t), the Dolphins could then offer their 2024 and ‘25 first-round picks.
Another option would be a Lamar-for-Tua trade in which Miami would include perhaps that ‘24 first-rounder and other players.
Miami is presently not in good shape salary cap-wise, but a slew of pending free agents gives the Dolphins the time and ability to make a deal for Jackson work financially.
If the Dolphins elect to not extend Tagovailoa with a long-term deal by the May 1 deadline and the Ravens have not locked up Jackson by then, then a post-draft trade would be fully on the table as a possibility.
Don’t get it wrong: I would not bet on Jackson-to-Miami happening. I am saying the plausibility and possibility are worth considering with vigor.
I do not say this because I have suddenly lost faith in Tagovailoa or because I am unduly concerned about his concussions issue. I am not either. The Dolphins will be fine moving forward with their 2020 top pick.
I say this because Jackson is better, top tier, a generational talent without the legal/ethical baggage of Watson or the age/Band-Aid issue of Brady.
Yes, Jackson has missed 11 games during the past two seasons with ankle and knee injuries, but vs. Tagovailoa’s concussion propensity that makes the two of them pretty equal in terms of the same risk facing any QB or any football player.
Jackson just turned 26. He was the 2019 league MVP. He might not quite have Tagovailoa’s accuracy but has a stronger arm. And, oh by the way, he is the most dangerous run-pass option in the NFL. Probably ever.
We just saw Jalen Hurts’ running ability as a huge reason Philadelphia reached the Super Bowl. And Patrick Mahomes’ mobility as a large part of his arsenal that helped Kansas City win it all again. We see how Josh Allen’s RPO threat has lifted Buffalo to Super Bowl contender.
Tagovailoa has now shown how good he can be when healthy but does not bring that dual threat that makes Jackson a whole different level of dangerous. And that is true even when he doesn’t have Hill and Waddle to either throw to or make his running lanes wider.
There were plenty of reasons to be uneasy about the Dolphins’ past interest in Watson and Brady.
There is every reason now for Miami to consider a serious run at Lamar Jackson.
