The Albanese government might be likened to the harried house-husband struggling with untidy rooms, dog hairs on the carpet, and piles of clothes in or waiting for the washing machine.
All this, with a property inspection looming that threatens a forced move into less salubrious accommodation.
With less than a year to go until the latest date for an election, the government is looking overwhelmed by its list of “still to do” and “issues outstanding” items. Starting things is always easier than completing them. Obstacles and distractions turn up.
Early in the term, the Senate was more compliant. Now, with the Greens as well as the Coalition muscling up for the election, and the crossbench more diverse after defections (including Fatima Payman from Labor), negotiations on bills have become more complicated.
Deals must soon be clinched on some major items if the government is to avoid them becoming “fails” on the report card.
Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme, Bill Shorten, has legislation to reform the scheme due to be debated in the Senate when parliament resumes on Monday after the winter recess.
With the government committed to significantly reducing the growth in the cost of the NDIS, the “Getting the NDIS Back on Track” bill is designed to create the “scaffolding” for a batch of changes to bring the scheme back to its more limited original intent.
Shorten has been negotiating with the Liberals, who have put forward amendments, and pressing the states, which have cavilled at having to take a bigger role in providing services. Shorten’s aim is for the bill to be passed in the sitting fortnight.
On another front, Special Minister of State Don Farrell has had to further delay introducing legislation for his proposed reforms of election spending and donations. That’s been put off a month, until September. There is no deal so far with the opposition or crossbench: the government is hoping the Liberals might eventually play ball.
Negotiations aiming for a bipartisan agreement to put aged care funding on a more sustainable basis (involving extra government money and additional consumer imposts) have dragged on endlessly, with legislation yet to be introduced.
More immediately, the battle with the nefarious CFMEU has become predictably difficult. The Fair Work Commission’s general manager, who is the regulator, has applied to the federal court to install an administrator in the union’s construction division. New Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt has reiterated he’ll introduce legislation next week unless the union consents to the administrator.
One of Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ key reforms is to restructure the Reserve Bank, establishing two separate boards (one an expert in monetary policy, the other for administration) instead of the present single board. Chalmers wants changes to the bank to be bipartisan but hasn’t been able to reach an agreement with the Liberals.
Sprucing the government’s house also involves decluttering. At the weekend Anthony Albanese tossed out the earlier plan for a Makaratta Commission to deal with truth-telling and treaty.
Post referendum, Albanese is taking his Indigenous policy in a fresh direction, emphasising economic empowerment rather than the remaining parts of the Uluru Statement from the Heart. Predictably, this has left some in the Indigenous constituency further disillusioned and others downright angry. Things weren’t helped by the PM seeking to leave the impression the government had never supported a commission, although money remains in the budget for one.
Months ago, at risk of another rebuff from the High Court, the government tried to rush through legislation to make it a crime for non-citizens to refuse to co-operate in their deportation (for example, by declining to provide documents).
Labor expected the opposition to wave the bill through. Instead it was sent to a Senate inquiry. Meanwhile the government won the relevant court case, reducing the need for the draconian measures in the legislation. Now this bill is in limbo.
Then there’s the religious discrimination legislation, which was an election promise. This bill has been drafted and shown to the opposition but not publicly released. Albanese has said he won’t go ahead with it unless there is bipartisan agreement – which there is not.
Assuming Albanese pronounces the bill dead, the declared intention is to go ahead with separate legislation against hate speech.
As the government struggles with a legislative agenda facing blocks and other delays, the economic backdrop gyrates.
An August interest rate hike was avoided with better-than-feared inflation figures, but the relief has been dampened by a public row breaking out this week between the Reserve Bank and the government over the role of its spending in contributing to, or reducing, inflation.
The bank is tut-tutting about government spending (state as well as federal) and pointing out that the anti-inflation effect of the budget energy price relief will be only temporary. It also believes the economy is “running a bit hot”. Chalmers is pushing back on its various contentions.
Under revised arrangements, which include a regular Governor’s press conference, we are hearing a lot more from the Reserve Bank, a complication, at best, for the treasurer.
This week the government unveiled another dollop of spending – a 15% increase in wages for child care workers, costing $3.6 billion.
This was provided for in the May budget but not announced. The timing is politically neat: 10% pre-election and 5% post-election.
So is the timing of the condition the government has imposed on the childcare providers – not to increase fees by more than 4.4% for one year, until after the election.
Some observers have noted that Chalmers, hyperactive and ambitious, has been more subdued since the budget. If the government falls into minority at the election, it would be defying history if some tensions between the prime minister and treasurer did not emerge in the second term.
Labor colleagues privately have become more critical of Albanese as the election draws nearer. They’re worried about the polls, surprised Peter Dutton is cutting through to the extent he is, and concerned Albanese, while talking a lot, is not more effectively reaching an electorate that is worried about the present and pessimistic about the future.
Given that Albanese in the 2022 election, when he was kicking with the wind in the final quarter (to use his terminology), did not seem a great campaigner, his colleagues will want him to sharpen his messaging for what will be a tougher fight next time.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
