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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Richard Partington Senior economics correspondent

Good news on UK inflation may be short-lived amid trade war and rising household bills

The Bank of England with tulips in the City of London financial district
Most experts, including forecasters at the Bank of England, anticipate inflation will reach almost 4% by the summer. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Cooling inflation, resilient wage growth, and an economy outperforming expectations. After the turmoil since Donald Trump’s “liberation day”, there are some signs that Britain entered the crisis in reasonable shape.

The trouble is, the good news is unlikely to last long. The bigger-than-expected decline in inflation to 2.6% in March will come as a welcome reprieve for hard-pressed households. But it is a snapshot from a rear-view mirror, on an increasingly rocky journey.

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