TORONTO — Before you can lift the Stanley Cup, you have to get out of the first round, and an opening-round win can set the tone for a deep playoff run.
The Lightning don’t need to be reminded of that. Two years ago, their five-overtime win over the Blue Jackets in Game 1 launched them to greatness. And last postseason’s crash course with the state-rival Panthers was as much a slugfest as a contest of skill that propelled the Lightning to another Cup.
This year’s opening-round matchup against the Maple Leafs?
“This is gonna be terrific,” Lightning TV analyst Brian Engblom said.
“There’s so much hype,” Engblom added. “Anything to do with Toronto has a tremendous amount of hype. That sets the table at a different level. ... So the hype factor before the puck even gets dropped in Game 1 is just exponentially higher than any other team they could have played in the NHL. You’re talking the highest, end of story. So you’ve got to get yourself immersed in it right at the beginning. You’ve got to be ready to match what’s going on there.”
The Lightning’s quest for a historic third straight Cup (which would be a first in the salary-cap era) goes through the league’s second-ranked scoring team and its top goal-scorer, Auston Matthews, who set a single-season franchise record for goals. The Maple Leafs also possess the league’s top power-play unit.
The Leafs, however, haven’t advanced out of the first round since 2004, and the drought weighs heavily on their fans. Any sign that this series could go bad for the Leafs will create panic in Toronto.
“I certainly think this series favors Tampa, based on having the recipe book for what it takes to win and win Cups, let alone repeat,” said ESPN and NHL Network studio analyst Kevin Weekes. “All the great individual players they have, they still do that within the framework of a team game. The Leafs are searching for that.”
In the postseason, goal-scoring takes a back seat to defense. Teams play more detailed and disciplined games. But in winning the past two Cups, the Lightning have shown they can win in different ways in the playoffs.
Still, with all the skill the teams possess — in addition to Matthews, Toronto’s Mitch Marner had a 97-point regular season, there’s no player hotter than Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos, and Nikita Kucherov is right behind him — Engblom said that there will be some high-scoring contests in the series.
“I think you’re looking at 4-3, 5-4, 6-4 kinds of games, either that, or the goaltenders are going to be like octopi out there,” Engblom said. “Because there are going to be chances. As much as coaches and much as the players are going to say, ‘We can’t afford to open it up, it’s gonna happen.”
Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said Sunday that he expects the series to be physical — “borderline violent.” Keefe said he studied the Lightning’s opening-round win over the Panthers last season and saw how Tampa Bay neutralized Florida’s skill with its physicality.
“We expect it. We got a taste of it when we were down in Tampa,” Keefe said. I have watched them play through their playoff runs. I have re-watched it since. They are a team that is going to be very physical and competitive.”
The Lightning and Leafs combined for 30 penalties and 114 penalty minutes in their last meeting, an 8-1 Tampa Bay win on April 21. Something similar could have happened in their April 4 meeting, a 6-2 Toronto win that included a Matthews hat trick, had refs not quelled the intensity by giving Pat Maroon and Wayne Simmonds misconduct penalties simply for chirping at each other from their benches.
The Lightning plan to to reignite that physicality to gain an edge.
“I sure hope so,” Hedman said. “They’ve got some big boys on that team, too, so they can play physical. That’s what the playoffs are all about, and when you see the same team for an extended period of time, everything is going to be even more in the details. You’re trying to take advantage of every weakness you can see. But they’re a great team, and we’ve got to be on our best to have a chance.”
Lighting coach Jon Cooper said first-round playoff matchups can become “organized chaos,” and he expects this one to be the same.
“We’ve kind of been through all the wars,” he said. “Just rewind the tape to last year at this time, we played the Florida Panthers. I always describe it as two cars going 100 miles an hour right at each other and who’s going to flinch first ... And so you get whatever that extra 5 or 10 percent you have inside you (when) you get in the playoffs. Everybody’s determination goes up. They want to win.”
