Millions of voters across London are going to the polls to elect the new Government. The Standard is looking at key battleground seats in the capital. Here we turn the spotlight on:
UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP
Estimated declaration time 4.15am
Candidates for main parties (in alphabetical order):
Danny Beales - Labour
Sarah Charmian - Green Party
Ian Rex-Hawkes - Lib Dems
Steve Tuckwell - Conservatives
Tim Wheeler - Reform UK
Summary: Boris Johnson became MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip in 2015 and Labour tried hard at several elections to oust him but failed
After he quit Parliament over the partygate scandal, local councillor Steve Tuckwell held onto the constituency for the Tories by just 495 votes in a by-election last July.
Now, there is a rematch with his Labour challenger Danny Beales.
Mr Tuckwell will have gained some support having been the MP, even if for less than a year.
But Reform UK might bite into the Tory vote.
Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to Outer London may still be an issue, however, it’s unlikely to be as significant as in the by-election which the Tories sought to turn into a referendum on the mayor’s scheme.
Mr Johnson had a majority of 7,210 in 2019 so it’s definitely on the radar of possibly winnable seats for Labour.
Demographic changes in outer London are largely against the Tories.
But they have held this seat, and its predecessor constituency of Uxbridge, since 1970.
Area: The constituency includes the wards of Colham & Cowley, Hillingdon East, Hillingdon West, Ickenham & South Harefield, Ruislip Manor, South Ruislip, Uxbridge, and Yiewsley.
I’m not sure if I’m in this constituency: Here’s how you can check
Boundary changes impact (Thrasher and Rawlings analysis): Boundary changes have made this very slightly less favourable for Labour since the last general election. In 2019, the result was 52.6 per cent Conservative, 37.6 per cent Labour, 6.3 per cent Lib Dem. The changes would have made it still 52.6 per cent Tory, and 37 per cent Labour, 6.6 per cent Lib Dem.
YouGov MRP poll prediction: Labour gain from Tories
Evening Standard view: Tough one to call. Polls suggest Labour will win but the Tories have clung on here against the odds in the past.
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