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Karoline Thomsen, Ph.D. Candidate, UNSW Sydney

Gamblers can now bet on the outcome of wars – and that’s a problem

The growing threat of conflict in the Middle East last week prompted a flood of activity in a little-known area of betting: prediction markets in which users can bet on a particular military action.

One user of the Polymarket betting platform won US$4,500 (A$6,350) by predicting the exact date of the United States striking Iran.

In total, Polymarket users bet more than US$4 million (A$5.65 million) on the US-Iran strikes occurring on February 28.

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