This week’s local elections have been widely described as one of the toughest tests of Rishi Sunak’s 18-month premiership, with Westminster-watchers considering the results as portents of his fate in the coming national poll – considered to be coming this autumn.
But while some voters in England may use their vote to bloody his nose this Thursday, a host of more local issues are also likely to influence the results.
Council cuts
After more than a decade of tight funding settlements, local authority finances are under unprecedented pressure.
Birmingham became the biggest and most high-profile casualty of the crisis last September when it filed a section 114 notice – signalling that it could not balance its books– in September. The city recently announced plans for drastic spending cuts, but few areas are immune to what Birmingham’s council leader, John Cotton, has called the “forest fire raging through local government”.
Voters across England have endured cuts to everything from arts grants to bin collections. In Labour-run areas, they will have to decide who to blame.
“In principle, local authorities have control over these things but, in practice, we’re so centralised all of that is covered by budget decisions made in national government,” says Paul Swinney, the director of policy at the Centre for Cities thinktank.
“The question will be whether the electorate recognise that and punish blue [Conservative] candidates because they see it as being a national government issue, or punish [Labour] incumbents because they see it as being a local challenge.”
Potholes
“When you ask people ‘what are the issues for your local area?’, it’s astounding how much potholes comes up. It really is one of the big motivators,” says Luke Tryl, of the political consultancy More in Common.
Jolting passengers and endangering cyclists, potholes are a physical manifestation of long-term underinvestment that anyone who drives to work or school has to bump their way across daily.
As the deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, put it recently: “Of course, people care about potholes as a safety hazard and a risk to their tyres, but also as eyesores that are a symbol of decline.”
The Tories are well aware of their political potency, too – Rishi Sunak’s government recently promised to recycle some of the funds allocated for the scrapped HS2 line into filling holes in roads across the country. Voters may be unconvinced as yet that this will make any difference, however.
Health and social care
Local authorities are not in charge of the NHS, but council candidates report that the dire state of health services constantly comes up in conversations on the doorstep.
That includes social care, for which local authorities do have responsibility, and where many families in need of support will have had direct contact with their local authority – even if only to be told they must fund it themselves.
Recent analysis by the County Councils Network showed councils are spending £200 more a person on children’s services and adult social care than a decade ago – and that these two responsibilities alone were swallowing up on average two-thirds of local authorities’ budgets.
Like clattering over potholes, the struggle to get a GP appointment or support a sick family member is an immediate and vivid illustration of what is not working in the UK – and may well colour voters’ views, even where councils are not directly involved.
Personal brands
Ten metro mayoralties are up for grabs on Thursday, from the established job of mayor of London to newly created roles such as those in the east Midlands.
As the profile of these posts has grown over the years, their occupants have built powerful political identities – with turnout generally rising over time. Recent polling by the Centre for Cities showed voters in most metro mayoralties were considerably more likely to be able to identify their local mayor than their MP.
Pollsters are watching closely to see whether the Conservative mayors Andy Street, in the West Midlands, and Ben Houchen, in Tees Valley, can buck their party’s dire national standing and win another term.
Street’s campaign website barely mentions his party affiliation, and he told the Observer in a recent interview that he was focusing instead on “brand Andy – one individual”.
The metro mayors hold a patchwork of responsibilities that have deepened over the years – with Greater Manchester and the West Midlands due to receive block grant-style funding under new “trailblazer” devolution deals, creating even more powerful roles.
Transport
When the Centre for Cities asked the public what policies they could name that were associated with their local metro mayor, transport plans were by far the most commonly cited (though more than half of the voters could not name any policies).
In London, that overwhelmingly meant the capital’s ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) – a clean air policy initially introduced by Boris Johnson, but which has caused furious debate since being expanded to the capital’s suburbs by the current mayor, Sadiq Khan.
In Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham has started integrating and rebranding various modes of transport under the new Bee Network, including creating new bus routes. The West Yorkshire mayor, Tracy Brabin, has also begun taking bus transport back under local control.
Some voters also directly cited the £2 cap on bus fares introduced in several metro regions, while Houchen’s best-known policy in Tees Valley was taking control of the local airport.
Housing and planning
Planning can be a fraught political issue, as evidenced by multiple thwarted attempts to overhaul the system from the centre.
Where council and mayoral elections are concerned, Tryl describes planning rows as “hyper-local”. Voters are unlikely to bring it up in the abstract, but may rail against a controversial new development in their neighbourhood or local town centre, and be willing to punish the local authority that gave it the green light.
Some of the metro mayors have made housing a key issue, meanwhile, with Khan promising to build 40,000 council homes by 2030, and Street saying he would use new powers to treble the rate of social housebuilding.
