Fresno State vs. Utah State: Why The Bulldogs Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Bulldogs will need to move past last week’s loss in a hurry against the explosive Aggies. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
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No time to mourn on a short week.
WEEK 7: Fresno State Bulldogs (5-1, 1-1 Mountain West) vs. Utah State Aggies (3-3, 1-1 MW)
WHEN: Friday, October 13 — 5:00 PM PT/6:00 PM MT
WHERE: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium; Logan, UT
WEATHER: Partly cloudy, low of 37 degrees
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBS Sports Network, by following this link.
RADIO: The Fresno State broadcast can be found in and around the Central Valley on the affiliates of the Bulldog Sports network, including flagship 1340 AM (KCBL) in Fresno. The Utah State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 1280 The Zone (KZNS) in Salt Lake City.
SERIES RECORD: Fresno State leads the all-time series, 18-13-1. In the last meeting on November 14, 2020, the Bulldogs defeated the Aggies, 34-16, in Logan.
LAST GAME: Fresno State lost on the road to Wyoming, 24-19, while Utah State defeated Colorado State at home, 44-24.
WEBSITES: GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website | UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Fresno State | Utah State
ODDS: Fresno State -5.5
SP+ PROJECTION: Fresno State by 7.8
FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 13.2
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Fresno State 70.28% win probability (31.10-23.11)
After getting saddled with their first loss of 2023, the Fresno State Bulldogs will face a different kind of challenge in their second straight road game, this time against the Utah State Aggies.
Much like Jason Voorhees, the Aggies seem tough to kill despite a habit of performing miserably in the first quarter. While both sides could be playing with their backup quarterback, the Bulldogs will also be without cornerback Cam Lockridge for the rest of the season. Is there too much blood in the water, or can the Bulldogs live to defend their crown for another week?
Here’s what Fresno State can do to bounce back and beat the Aggies.
Three Keys to a Fresno State Victory
1. Beware of Ike Larsen.
If his freshman year in 2022 wasn’t enough proof, the young Aggies safety is clearly one of the best overall players the Bulldogs will deal with all season. Besides owning the second-highest overall Pro Football Focus grade of any defender in the conference, 86.1, Larsen has already intercepted three passes, blocked two kicks, and given up just 10.3 yards per reception when targeted, the seventh-lowest average among 27 conference players who’ve seen at least 20 targets.
Taking shots down the field, then, will come with some risk despite Fresno State’s wide receiver talent, but that might not be the game plan, anyway, especially if Logan Fife starts in place of starting quarterback Mikey Keene, whose status for Friday night is up in the air. According to PFF, Fife’s average depth of target on 177 career dropbacks is just 6.6 yards, a low figure that isn’t altogether different from Keene’s (7.5 ADOT) and Jake Haener’s before him (8.7 ADOT in 2022). Getting the ball out quickly to receivers in space might be the way to go with that in mind, especially since four different Fresno State receivers have already racked up 100 yards after the catch.
2. Continue stopping the run.
The Bulldogs have done an exceptional job of keeping opposing running backs in check to date, posting a 25% stuff rate through the first six games and bottling up the likes of Cameron Skattebo, Devin Mockobee, and Harrison Waylee so far. Utah State presents an entirely different kind of challenge, however, since there’s not one but three players in their backfield — Davon Booth, Rahsul Faison, and Robert Briggs — who could change the dynamic of the game in one play.
While the Aggies’ propensity for slow starts is well known, that doesn’t necessarily apply to this trio. In six first quarters, Booth, Faison, and Briggs have combined to average 6.96 yards per carry; the catch is that they have just 23 first-quarter rushing attempts between them. Considering that quarterbacks Cooper Legas and McCae Hillstead (the latter of whom probably won’t play, as reported by Jason Walker of the Cache Valley Daily, as he recovers from a concussion) haven’t covered themselves in glory in the first 15 minutes of games all year, it wouldn’t be a shock if Utah State offensive coordinator Kyle Cefalo decided to take a different approach to this game. Fresno State must be ready if they do.
3. Find an edge on special teams.
Last week, you could have argued that Utah State had an overall advantage in this facet of the game with Terrell Vaughn and Micah Davis thriving as returners, Elliot Nimrod holding his own as the team’s new kicker, and Stephen Kotsanlee established as a reliable punter, but the last of that group is out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken leg in Week 6 against Colorado State.
Now, punting duties will fall to redshirt freshman Ryan Marks, whose 40-yard boot against the Rams last Saturday was the first of his college career. It could make winning the field position game that much more important, especially since Kotsanlee had been in the midst of his best year yet (43.5 yards per punt, 8-of-25 kicks inside the 20). After successfully executing an onside kick in last week’s loss to Wyoming, we know the Bulldogs have some tricks up their sleeve if needed, but it remains to be seen if they’ll find a way to exploit this unexpected personnel change.
Prediction
Hitting the road for a second straight week, and with one fewer day for preparation, is a tall order for any Mountain West football team. Doing so against the highest-scoring offense in the conference, potentially with a backup quarterback, on Friday the 13th, feels particularly scary. It’s going to come down to how the defense responds after getting pushed more often than expected against Wyoming last weekend, so if they can force the Aggies into mistakes, the offense has the goods, with or without Keene, to take advantage of those chances.
One way or another, both teams are fighting for survival in Mountain West play, so expect a killer game.
Fresno State 35, Utah State 34
