France has begun voting in the first round of parliament elections key to Emmanuel Macron’s second term, determining his capacity to deliver domestic policy such as raising the retirement age and overhauling the benefits system.
Macron, who was re-elected president in April against the far right’s Marine Le Pen, needs a majority for his centrist grouping in the lower house of parliament to have a free hand for his proposals to cut taxes and make changes to the welfare system.
But a historic alliance of parties on the left, led by the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed party with the Socialists and the Greens, is seeking to massively increase its seats and reduce the score of Macron’s centrists.
Polling shows that, in terms of voting intentions, Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble (Together), is neck-and-neck with Mélenchon’s coalition, known as the Nupes, or the New Popular Ecological and Social Union.
However, France’s constituency-based, first-past-the-post voting system for parliament means that the exact number of seats for each grouping remains hard to predict. Much will depend on turnout – which could be under 50% and reach a historic low.
Polling currently shows that Macron’s centrist alliance would win the greatest share of the 577-seat parliament — taking between 260 and 320 seats. But this suggests there is a chance that Macron’s centrists could fall short of an absolute majority, which requires 289 seats.
If Macron’s party and his centrist allies fail to secure a majority, it would be a setback for the president and could prompt messy bill-by-bill deals with rightwing parties in parliament or an unwanted cabinet reshuffle.
The challenge from the newly united left has been greater than expected, as support for Mélenchon’s alliance has steadily progressed in the polls. The alliance could take between 155 and 205 seats and become the main opposition force in parliament, polling shows.
Macron and ministers stepped up campaigning this week, warning Mélenchon was dangerous and an extremist who would kill the European Union, “ally with Russia” and add to “world disorder”.
Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, which won eight seats in 2017, hopes this time to get at least 15 seats, allowing it to form a parliamentary group and gain greater visibility at the national assembly. Polling shows the party could take between 20 and 65 seats. Despite Le Pen coming second in the presidential election with a historic high of 41%, the first-past-the-post voting system for parliament has historically proved difficult for her party in legislative elections.
Polls opened in mainland France at 8am (7am BST) after voters in overseas territories cast ballots earlier in the weekend. Polls close at 8pm.
Of the 577 deputies in the national assembly, eight represent France’s overseas territories and 11 account for French nationals living abroad.
Sunday’s first-round vote will decide which candidates face each other in each constituency for a final week of campaigning.
The shape of the new parliament will become clear only after the second round on 19 June.
