French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day state visit Thursday to Serbia, where he may finalise a contract to sell 12 Rafale fighter jets to a country known for its close ties to Russia.
Amid a political crisis in France, Macron’s visit to Serbia on 29 and 30 August is diplomatically sensitive, with the Elysée Palace remaining tight-lipped about the reasons for the trip.
A scheduled press briefing on Tuesday was abruptly postponed without explanation.
One sure thing is that Macron will meet Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Thursday evening, when the finalisation of a contract to sell 12 Rafale fighter jets to Serbia is expected to be announced.
Vucic confirmed on Monday that negotiations for the contract were underway and also mentioned potential agreements with French state energy provider EDF to bolster Serbia's nuclear industry.
Macron’s itinerary includes a visit to a museum and an economic forum on artificial intelligence in Novi Sad on Friday, but the potential sale of Rafale jets has garnered the most attention in Serbia, where the military primarily relies on aging Soviet-era Mig-29s.
While Vucic has frequently claimed that the €3 billion contract with French aeronautics company Dassault is nearly finalised, the French government has remained more cautious.
Selling Rafales to Serbia – a country known for its close ties to Moscow and occasionally aggressive stance toward its Balkan neighbours – raises significant concerns.
Chief among them is how France plans to prevent Rafale technology from being shared with Russia or used to pressure Kosovo, whose independence Serbia does not recognise.
'Transactional diplomacy'
Paris has consistently avoided addressing these concerns while defending Serbia in its escalating tensions with Kosovo over a region in its north predominantly inhabited by Serbs who reject Kosovar sovereignty.
Despite Macron's advisors claiming he is not naive about Vucic’s authoritarian governance, Macron has shown a tendency to sympathise with the Serbian leader.
Vucic, who has ruled Serbia since 2012, employs transactional diplomacy with major powers like Russia, China, and the West.
Since the war in Ukraine began, Vucic has refused to align with European sanctions against Moscow, yet Serbian factories continue to produce arms for Ukraine.
On 20 August, the Elysée Palace stated that Macron’s visit was intended to “reaffirm France’s support for Serbia's European anchorage”.
The sale of Western military equipment, such as the Rafales, is seen as a gesture to distance Serbia from its traditional Russian ally.
'Questionable' commitment to EU
However, Serbia’s commitment to European integration remains questionable due to certain actions by the Belgrade government.
Just before Macron’s visit, the Belgrade Court of Appeal examined the case of Andrey Gnyot, a Belarusian dissident facing possible extradition to Belarus.
Gnyot claims this is a politically motivated process due to his involvement with "SOS-BY", an organisation of "free athletes" that formed in response to the 2020 protests against Alexander Lukashenko's contested re-election in Belarus.
Gnyot was arrested in October 2023 at Belgrade airport and detained under an Interpol Red Notice issued by Belarus, citing "tax evasion".
In June, Interpol lifted the Red Notice after reviewing new information suggesting it was politically motivated.
Despite this, Serbian authorities have continued to pursue the extradition, citing a 2019 agreement with Minsk – which many see as evidence of a politically charged case consistent with Belarus’ history of fabricating accusations.
Gnyot’s situation is not isolated, as at least three other Belarusian opponents have been previously targeted by Interpol Red Notices in Moldova, Italy, and Poland – none of whom were extradited.
Serbia maintains favourable relations with Belarus, a staunch ally of Moscow in the Ukraine conflict.
Flirting with authoritarian regimes
Several Russian citizens who fled to Serbia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine have faced cancelled residence permits after voicing opposition to Vladimir Putin from within Serbia.
Ahead of Macron's visit, Piotr Nikitine, co-founder of the Russian Democratic Society in Belgrade, called on European leaders to uphold their values rather than prioritise economic interests with authoritarian regimes.
Just a month ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Belgrade to advocate for a controversial lithium mine project crucial for the German automotive industry but opposed by environmentalists.
