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Fortune
Fortune
Alex Tapscott

Forget the pundits and polls—internet prediction markets anticipated Biden’s withdrawal weeks ago

(Credit: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS - AFP)

In a stunning turn of events, President Joe Biden officially bowed out of the race for the White House. For months, Biden’s age has been an election issue. But until debate night nearly four weeks ago, few pundits dared to suggest he would leave the race, with most viewing it as a near impossibility. However, the odds on well-known internet prediction markets such as Polymarket and Predict.It told a very different story. 

A prediction market is an online platform where users wager money on future events—from who will be the next James Bond to when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to which country will win the most gold medals at the Paris Olympics.

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