Extreme weather and violent conflicts are threatening food production and trade across the globe. Experts are forecasting a super El Niño, which could further disrupt planting and harvests – and push millions more people into acute food insecurity. Meanwhile the ongoing wars with Iran and Ukraine are disrupting shipping and supply chains. Shawn Arita, Associate Research Professor at North Dakota State University, believes that transport problems outweigh supply concerns. "The food does exist, the availability does exist. The main issue currently speaking is that the movement is broken."
He describes the Strait of Hormuz as "a fertilizer corridor," which is crucial for farmers around the world. "Approximately a third of globally exported fertilizers previously, before 2026, came through Hormuz (...) We are seeing that transmitted through supply-side concerns, through yield-side concerns, and that is putting upward pressure on cereal prices, grain prices and ultimately throughout the whole food system, for major producers across the world."
Arita says high fertilizer and energy prices will continue to weigh on agricultural output. "When farmers' profit margins are weak or in many cases negative, throughout the US and for many farmers in the world, the depression of those margins leads to less output and ultimately that will feed into less food production globally."
