If you’re making your Christmas list and checking it twice, you’ll want to find out what’s around at what price.
Global and local supply shortages are threatening the traditional Christmas lunch.
Australia’s food supplies and costs have been battered by the ripples from Russia’s war on Ukraine, the pandemic, power prices, inflation, disease, hiccups in freight, labour shortages and the devastating floods.
War has pushed up the prices of fertiliser, fuel and transport. It has shaken supply chains – as have natural disasters and the pandemic – which, in turn, are forcing up inflation.
As the holiday bells start jingling, demand is surging, but supply is hiccuping.
As a result, all you want for Christmas might be harder to find – and harder to afford.
There’s even a paucity of Christmas trees, after thousands of pines did not survive the floods.
But it’s the traditional Christmas lunch that lands a gut punch. Here is the outlook for some of the main ingredients.
Turkey
Supplies are “tight”, says John Watson of the Australasian Turkey Federation. The surging price of grain, power and gas have put the squeeze on production, along with the cost of freighting the birds.
“The cost of everything’s just getting ridiculous,” Watson says.
“You wouldn’t think a madman on the other side of the world could affect so many people in so many ways. You have to pass it on or you’ll go bankrupt … but if we put our prices up [too much], people will say ‘stuff it, we’ll buy a cheap chook’.”
Workforce shortages have also affected the turkey industry, and Watson says the latest Covid wave has just started to bite.
Potatoes
Roast spuds, a Christmas staple, are also in short supply.
The floods and wet weather wiped out potato crops, along with other vegetables. Ausveg’s Shaun Lindhe says “things that are in the ground” – including potatoes and onions – were affected.
Getting harvesting machinery through damaged roads and sodden fields has been a problem even where crops have survived, and the problems have been compounded by the high price of fertiliser, labour shortages and fuel prices.
At least lettuces are no longer retailing for $12, Lindhe says, and other leafy vegetables should be available – although a salad is unlikely to replace the roast spud as a hero vegetable dish.
Prawns and oysters
Sydney rock oysters have been hit by the QX (Queensland unknown) disease, wiping out a chunk of supply to New South Wales. On the flipside, South Australian oysters have come through the other side of the Vibrio virus that struck about this time last year.
The head of Seafood Industry Australia, Veronica Papacosta, says Pacific oysters are looking good but can spawn around Christmas time. Prawns are “abundant”, she says. Both Moreton Bay and Balmain bugs are available, and at about the same price as last year.
Lobsters are in the pink thanks to a bumper season, and China’s refusal to claw back its ban.
“Across the entire food supply network there has been impacts to the supply chain and labour shortages,” she says.
“However, consumers don’t need to worry. Between our aquaculture and wild-caught products there will be a wide variety of Australian seafood available.”
Pork and ham
Pork lovers should be fine to pig out on ham, which is protected to an extent by its long shelf life.
The chief executive of Pork Australia, Margo Andrae, says ham is “probably a good news story”.
“We recognise how important Christmas is, so our producers are working hard to make sure the hams are ready. They’ve been working since July,” she says.
For the vegetarians there are plenty of options, even without potatoes. Tofurky is back in stock, after the company pulled out of the Australian market last year because of shipping challenges.
Supermarkets are also stocking ever larger ranges of other meat and dairy-free products.
Christmas pudding
Christmas puddings also benefit from their long shelf life. The co-owner of The Pudding Lady, Vianni Crenna, says it has been paying more for supplies and transport, and struggling to get enough staff.
“But we have lots of pudding.”
The brandy custard might cost a bit more, as will a pavlova. The price of groceries has increased 9.49% in the past year, according to the Frugle index. Eggs and dairy prices are up by about 14%, making meringue and cream more expensive – although they have been topped by strawberry prices as a result of the floods.
Cherries
Woolworths has warned that cherries are in short supply after rain delayed the season. The NSW floods mean many crops have come a cropper and prices could double by Christmas.
Other berries have held up better – especially those that can be frozen.
Woolworths has suggested mangos as an alternative. The mango industry is predicting a bumper crop with more than 9m trays (of 7kg each) over the season, despite workforce shortages (and as long as cyclones don’t threaten them).
Summerfruit Australia warns that the supply of peaches, nectarines, plums and apricots are all under threat.
Its chief executive, Trevor Ranford, says cooler weather, rain and floods will mean less fruit by Christmas.
Further ahead
The Food Industry Alliance says climate change is a major contributor to the supply-chain crisis, and that it will hurt well beyond Christmas.
Its spokesman, Richard Forbes, says more extreme weather events, along with global instability, labour shortages and power prices, are pushing up the price of food and threatening the entire industry. The alliance is pushing for a national food supply chain strategy.
“It’s like a jigsaw puzzle. We need to bring all the pieces together and understand the disruptors,” Forbes says.
“The ongoing regularity of natural disasters has provided evidence of the critical need for a national food supply plan and strategy.”
The federal government began an inquiry into food security in October, but Forbes says there’s no time to waste.
“We’re 172,000 workers short,” he says. “That’s pickers, meat and fish processors, truck drivers. We can’t wait … we need workers yesterday.”
As you pour yourself another white wine in the sun (there is a wine glut, after all), and contemplate switching from oysters to prawns, spare a Christmas thought for those without a choice.
Australia’s food relief providers say the need is “the most severe we’ve seen it”, with people doing it tough being forced to make heartbreaking decisions about what to spend their diminishing money on.
• Organisations that help with food relief include Foodbank and OzHarvest. The Givit hub organises cash and in-kind donations of food and other goods, including for NSW and Victoria flood victims.
