Florida Rep. Cory Mills, who’s faced scrutiny over allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations, joined the list of House incumbents to lose reelection bids this year. But a handful of other Florida members, including Democrats Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz, held off primary challenges Tuesday.
In the Republican primary for Florida’s 7th District, former TV news anchor Ryan Elijah was leading Mills, 47 percent to 34 percent, with more than 95 percent of votes counted, according to The Associated Press. Two other Republicans split the rest of the vote.
Mills is the second embattled House Republican to be denied by voters this month, following Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles’ primary loss. He has been the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation over accusations of sexually harassing a former girlfriend, assault and misrepresenting information in financial disclosure reports.
In total, 10 House incumbents have lost their bids for renomination so far this year.
While he won the backing of President Donald Trump last year, Mills didn’t have the support of all his colleagues. Fellow Florida Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos both endorsed Elijah. Gov. Ron DeSantis made clear last week that he didn’t support Mills’ reelection bid. Trump also pointedly did not include him among the Florida Republicans he reiterated his support for over the past week.
Democrats have been targeting Mills in the 7th District outside Orlando, but former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton, who won the party’s nomination Tuesday, could have a more difficult time facing Elijah in a district that Trump would have carried by around 12 points in 2024.
With more than 95 percent of the vote in, Dalton was leading Navy veteran Marialana Kinter and former Rep. Alan Grayson with around 45 percent of the vote, the AP reported.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the general election Likely Republican.
A Senate upset
Meanwhile, appointed Sen. Ashley Moody easily won the Republican nomination for the special election to complete the remainder of Marco Rubio’s Senate term.
But in an unexpected outcome, she’ll next face state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who won the Democratic nomination over Army veteran Alexander Vindman, a key witness in Trump’s first impeachment trial. Vindman, the brother of Virginia Rep. Eugene Vindman, had dominated the fundraising race going into the primary, raising $16.3 million to his opponent’s $975,000 through July 29, and was seen as the front-runner.
But Nixon’s victory marks the latest boon for progressives, who have won several key primaries this year over establishment-aligned opponents in places such as New York, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and now Florida. Nixon joined the Democratic Socialists of America earlier this year, although the group did not endorse her.
She touted endorsements from several House progressives, including Florida Rep. Maxwell Alejandro Frost and Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who campaigned with her in the final days of the campaign. But national progressive leaders such as Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez didn’t wade into the primary.
Nixon is set to face trial next month after she was charged with two misdemeanors over staging a sit-in in DeSantis’ office earlier this year as Republican officials contemplated redrawing Florida’s congressional map.
As Democrats have expanded the Senate map in their quest to win control of the chamber, Florida has so far remained on the periphery. A former swing state, Republicans have made significant inroads and have won four straight Senate elections.
Inside Elections rates the Senate race Solid Republican.
Donalds in the driver’s seat
The term-limited DeSantis, a former House member, will be succeeded by another former member of Congress next year.
Rep. Byron Donalds, who had Trump’s endorsement, won the Republican gubernatorial nomination Tuesday. With more than 95 percent of votes counted, Donalds was leading a crowded primary pack with 48 percent of the vote, the AP reported. His nearest challenger was Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent.
If elected in November, Donalds would be the Sunshine State’s first Black governor.
He will next face Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who joined the Democratic Party last year. Jolly, who easily bested a busy primary field, faces tough odds in a state that last elected a Democratic governor in 1994.
Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican.
Battleground races set
Republicans are eyeing four potential pickup opportunities in Florida under a new congressional map state lawmakers approved this spring.
Their best opportunity lies in Central Florida’s 9th District, which Trump would have carried by 18 points in 2024.
Democratic incumbent Darren Soto was unopposed in Tuesday’s primary, but the Republican contest was too close to call at publication time, with Navy veteran Dan Green, a Pentagon appointee during Trump’s first term, leading a crowded field with 25 percent, with more than 95 percent of the votes counted at 9:45 p.m. Eastern time. Farmer Ben Butler, whom DeSantis appointed three times to the South Florida Water Management District Governing Board, was in second with 24 percent.
Inside Elections rates the race Likely Republican.
In the 14th District, which shifted from a deep-blue seat to one that Trump would have carried by 11 points, Republicans nominated former state Rep. Mike Beltran to take on longtime Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor.
With more than 95 percent of votes counted, Beltran had 46 percent of the vote, while fellow former state Rep. Kevin Steele had 30 percent. Former Capitol Hill aide Bea Valenti was in third with 10 percent, and five other candidates shared the rest of the vote.
Beltran, an attorney, loaned his campaign more than $2 million as of July 29, according to federal filings. Inside Elections rates the 14th District race Lean Republican.
A pair of redrawn South Florida seats are also set for competitive general elections this fall. In the open 22nd District, Republican businessman Casey Askar, one of several candidates in the primary who self-funded their campaigns, will face educator Pia Dandiya, who was backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Under the new lines, Trump would have carried this seat by 10 points in 2024. Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Republican.
And in the 25th District, Moskowitz easily held off a primary challenge from progressive Oliver Larkin. With more than 95 percent of the vote in, the incumbent had 63 percent of the vote to his challenger’s 37 percent.
Moskowitz is now set to face former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, who was leading the GOP field with 31 percent, according to the AP, with more than 95 percent of votes counted. Trump would have carried the 25th District by 9 points in 2024, and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race a Toss-up.
Still, Moskowitz said his primary win showed voters support the “independent-minded approach I’ve brought to Congress.”
“This is exactly the kind of district I am built to represent,” he said in a statement. “People here don’t want ideological purity tests. They want someone who will lower costs, fight for the middle class, and stand up to antisemitism and hate in both parties.”
Other competitive House races
The matchups are set in two other House races currently seen as competitive this fall.
In the Tampa Bay-area 13th District, Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna will face Army veteran Leela Gray, who easily secured the Democratic nod Tuesday.
And the general election for the 27th District in the Miami area will feature a pair of former TV anchors: Republican incumbent María Elvira Salazar will take on Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, who defeated attorney and former congressional aide Robin Peguero.
Democrats are targeting both districts, which turned sharply right in the Trump era. Inside Elections rates both races Likely Republican.
Safe House seats
A combination of redistricting and retirements resulted in several open seats seen as safe for either party, meaning Tuesday’s primary was expected to be the deciding contest.
The Republican primary for Donalds’ Southwest Florida seat marked another loss for Trump, with his endorsed candidate, former Commerce Department adviser Catalina Lauf, finishing second to media company head Jim Schwartzel.
The 19th District primary had drawn attention for the number of candidates who previously ran for Congress from other states. The field included former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn, former New York Rep. Chris Collins and former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis. Lauf herself previously ran for the House from Illinois.
But Florida native Schwartzel ended up the winner of the 10-candidate field, taking 29 percent with more than 95 percent of votes counted.
In the 2nd District, in the state’s eastern Panhandle, attorney Austin Rogers, who previously served as general counsel for Florida Sen. Rick Scott, won the Republican nomination in the race to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Neal Dunn.
In the 6th District, which includes Daytona Beach, GOP Rep. Randy Fine, whose anti-Muslim comments prompted calls for his resignation earlier this year, easily beat back two primary challengers.
In the 16th District, where longtime GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan is retiring, former Agriculture Department official Sydney Gruters, the wife of Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, won the GOP nomination and will next face Democrat Kelly Kirschner, a former Sarasota mayor.
Meanwhile, Wasserman Schultz won the nomination for the 20th District, defeating four other candidates in a primary highlighted by racial tensions following redistricting.
With more than 95 percent of votes in, Wasserman Schultz was leading with 45 percent, followed by former Broward County Mayor Dale Holness with 23 percent and progressive Elijah Manley with 14 percent, the AP reported. Former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who previously held this seat but resigned earlier this year before facing punishment by the Ethics Committee for numerous violations, had 9 percent and Luther Campbell, the rapper known as Uncle Luke who was a member of 2 Live Crew had 8 percent.
Wasserman Schultz, the only white candidate in the race, opted to run in the plurality-Black 20th District, which has historically been represented by a Black lawmaker, after redistricting shifted her current district right. An effort by her Black primary opponents to coalesce around one candidate fell apart, leading to a split primary field.
Wasserman Schultz is poised to easily win reelection in November in a district that Kamala Harris would have carried by 37 points in 2024.
And in the deep-blue 24th District, where Rep. Frederica S. Wilson is retiring, her endorsed successor, Miami Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert defeated state Sen. Shevrin Jones, 34 percent to 32 percent, with more than 95 percent of the vote in. Attorney Kendrick Meek, whose father and grandmother both served in the House, had 17 percent.
Andrew Menezes contributed to this report.
