We are just a few weeks away from knowing which four teams will take part in the 2022 College Football Playoff. And while there are four teams in Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU that appear to be a clear choice today, we know that’s most likely going to change through the last four weeks of the season that includes the conference championship games.
It’s one thing to provide an opinion though. It’s another to actually have a predictive model built on analytics based on what has happened since the inception of the CFP to try and figure this thing out. That’s exactly what the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight is built for.
Each week since midway through the college football season, FiveThirtyEight updates its College Football Playoff Predictions model to determine the teams with the best chance of making the College Football Playoff. We follow it every week since Ohio State is right in the thick of things again, and the Buckeyes are still in a good spot heading into Week 11.
Here is where the OSU and other teams are in their chances of making the CFP according to FiveThirtyEight as we get ready for the home stretch of the season. We include only teams with a 5% chance or better according to the model.
15
No. 15 - Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5% (⇓)
Chances if win out
37%
14
No. 13 (tie) - North Carolina Tar Heels (8-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
6% (⇔)
Chances if win out
51%
13
No. 13 (tie) - Texas Longhorns (6-3)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
6% (⇑)
Chances if win out
32%
12
No. 11 (tie) - Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
7% (⇓)
Chances if win out
11%
11
No. 11 (tie) - Utah Utes (7-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
7% (⇔)
Chances if win out
25%
10
No. 10 - UCLA Bruins (8-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
8% (⇑)
Chances if win out
56%
9
No. 9 - LSU Tigers (7-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
14% (⇑)
Chances if win out
84%
8
No. 8 - USC Trojans (8-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
15% (⇑)
Chances if win out
84%
7
No. 7 - Oregon Ducks (8-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
23% (⇑)
Chances if win out
89%
6
No. 6 - TCU Horned Frogs (9-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
33% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
5
No. 5 - Clemson Tigers (8-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
34% (⇓)
Chances if win out
76%
4
No. 4 - Tennessee Volunteers (8-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
41% (⇓)
Chances if win out
57%
3
No. 3 - Michigan Wolverines (9-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
45% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
2
No. 2 - Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
66% (⇓)
Chances if win out
>99%
1
No. 1 - Georgia Bulldogs (9-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
83% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
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