Five predictions for the next six months in the war in Ukraine

Dignitaries and members of the public attend an independence day ceremony in Lviv, Ukraine. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

1. The war will probably run on for a year at least but is essentially deadlocked and its intensity is lessening

Six months of war may have gone by, but neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready to stop fighting, despite the losses they have sustained. Ukraine wants its occupied territories back, and Russia wants to keep inflicting pain not just on its opponent but, by proxy, the west also. The Kremlin believes winter will play to its advantage.