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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Business
Patrick Commins Economics editor

Financial markets now certain the RBA will hike interest rates in 2026

RBA Interest Rates Sally Tindall Shane Oliver Inflation Reserve Bank
An ibis bird outside the RBA headquarters
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate next year due to inflation. Photograph: Daniel Munoz/Reuters

Financial markets are now pricing in a 100% chance the Reserve Bank will hike rates in 2026, in what would be a blow to mortgage holders but may take some steam out of an overheating property market.

The latest forecasts represent a turnaround from just two weeks ago, when traders were factoring in an even chance that the next RBA move would be a cut by its May meeting.

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