As it should be, the AFC championship between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs looks like one of the hardest games of the year to predict.
And it might be the most difficult Bengals game to predict in 10-plus years.
Thank the quarterbacks. Joe Burrow needed one play to get his team in field goal range to win in the divisional round against Tennessee. Patrick Mahomes, already a Super Bowl winner, made clutch play after clutch play in mere seconds to beat Buffalo in overtime.
One could say we’ve seen this story before, of course. These teams met in Week 17, a 34-31 Bengals win in Cincinnati in which Burrow threw for 446 yards and four scores despite endless pressure from Chris Jones and Co. while Ja’Marr Chase went off for 266 yards and three scores.
But the rematch in the AFC title game goes down in Kansas City and the Chiefs will undoubtedly make adjustments. The Cincinnati defense showed it can hold the Chiefs to just three points in the second half, but it’s probably unlikely it holds Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to less than 40 yards apiece, right?
The blueprint, at least, is there — the Chiefs are going to try to limit Bengals wideouts and probably won’t blitz as much, so it’ll be on Chase to light up the intermediate game and break those tackles again. Mahomes also struggled against Cincinnati’s two-high looks, so if they can come up with key breakups on would-be explosive plays down the field, it means more chances for Burrow to get or extend the lead.
Two overall factors will decide this game:
- Burrow’s clock
- Chase
We know the Chiefs defensive line should feast. Burrow held the ball too long last week and got sacked nine times. If he’s firing it off faster, they’re probably moving down the field often. If they’re ready for the big time, the loud noise last week in Tennessee was just prep for the bigger beast that is Arrowhead Stadium, too, so line communication issues should have less of an impact.
Chase is a big part of that. And it’s really what makes a brutally difficult prediction much easier — the Chiefs don’t have anyone who can stop him. If the Chiefs blitz, somebody will be in single coverage. If they don’t, Chase might beat their coverage anyway because to be blunt, the Tennessee defense was more of a matchup nightmare for the Bengals offense.
And for as much as the Chiefs Big 3 gets attention (they should, as future Hall of Famers), the Bengals have one too. Tee Higgins can do major damage. Tyler Boyd can nickel and dime any defense down the field.
In a quarterback-driven league, the Bengals have the ammo necessary to win any game, including this one. With the Chiefs defense so exploitable through the air, it’s not as concerning the Bengals offense hasn’t looked elite over two playoff games. This is a better matchup for the passing attack and frankly, one or two key defensive stops and big plays by Chase will swing it.
Prediction: Bengals 33, Chiefs 31
