Summary of the day
Dutch party leaders clashed in a tetchy televised debate on Monday night as the Netherlands election campaign entered its final days. The six main party leaders interrupted each other and failed to agree on any subjects except the housing crisis.
The last pre-election poll, published today, showed the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) on course to win 28 seats. The People’s party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and Green-Labour alliance (GL/PvdA) were on course for 27 seats each. Due to the margin of error, the three parties are considered at the moment to be tied.
The VVD head, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, ruled out joining a government with the far-right PVV if the PVV gets the most votes. She said she was prepared to talk to the PVV leader, Geert Wilders, about coalition-forming if VVD was the largest party.
The far-right Forum for Democracy leader, Thierry Baudet, said he was continuing with his campaign, after he was hit with a beer bottle.
Rem Korteweg, a senior research fellow at the Clingendael Institute, said today that the “only surprise” in the Dutch campaign was the rise of the far-right candidate Wilders over the past days and that when it comes to a new coalition, the big question remained whether Wilders is excluded or not.
Sarah de Lange, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, underscored that even in the final pre-election opinion poll, 63% of respondents were not completely decided.
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The Dutch government’s failure to develop a workable political solution to the problem of excess nitrogen has shaken the country’s politics to its foundations.
In the Netherlands it is known simply as the stikstofcrisis, the nitrogen crisis. An environmental reform that at first glance seemed to affect only a small proportion of Dutch society has somehow become not only wildly controversial in its own right, but embroiled in a web of related and unrelated issues, grievances and conspiracy theories.
Check out Paul Tullis’ long read on the nitrogen wars: the Dutch farmers’ revolt that turned a nation upside down.
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Sarah de Lange, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, makes the point that even in the final pre-election opinion poll, 63% of respondents were not completely decided.
Most important sentence in report accompanying the final I&O poll in the Netherlands: on Nov 21st 63 percent of respondents had not yet settled on their final vote choice https://t.co/8GQ2wHZJbe
— Prof. Sarah de Lange (@SLdeLange) November 21, 2023
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Here are pictures from the Netherlands today, as the country gears up for tomorrow’s election.
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“Good governance is our absolute top priority,” New Social Contract candidate Pieter Omtzigt says as parties make last-minute appeals to voters.
Te vaak maken politici snelle ondoordachte keuzes, waar ze later op terugkomen.
— Pieter Omtzigt (@PieterOmtzigt) November 21, 2023
Goed bestuur gaat over het nemen van doordachte, weloverwogen besluiten, die burgers beschermen
Bij ons is goed bestuur absolute topprioriteit.
Wij hebben uitgewerkte plannen voor échte verandering…
Based on the latest polling, the Clingendael Institute’s Rem Korteweg sketched out two possible coalitions:
Coalition 1: PVV-VVD-NSC.
Coalition 2: VVD-NSC-GL/PvdA (possibly plus a small party).
The question is whether Wilders is excluded or not. And that is exactly the same question that has occupied Dutch politics for 13 years.
Coalitie 1:
— Rem Korteweg (@remkorteweg) November 21, 2023
PVV-VVD-NSC
Coalitie 2:
VVD-NSC-GL/PvdA (eventueel plus een kleine partij)
Met andere woorden, het gaat om de vraag of Wilders wordt uitgesloten, of niet.
En dat is precies dezelfde vraag die de Nederlandse politiek al 13 jaar bezighoudt. pic.twitter.com/r9CNhfvsIH
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Far-right Forum for Democracy leader Thierry Baudet said today that he is all right and continuing with his campaign. He was hit with a beer bottle yesterday.
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Last pre-election poll puts three parties neck-to-neck
The far right Party for Freedom (PVV) is set to win 28 seats, according to the last pre-election poll by I&O Research.
The People’s party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and Green-Labour alliance (GL/PvdA) have 27 seats each, according to the poll, Volkskrant reported.
Due to the margin of error, the three parties are considered tied.
The New Social Contract (NSC) is at 21 seats.
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The D66 leader Rob Jetten is criticising VVD candidate Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius’s stance on Geert Wilders.
“People see through this,” he said.
Earlier, Yesilgöz-Zegerius said she was prepared to talk to Wilders about forming a coalition if the VVD was the largest party.
Aha. Nu komt de aap uit de mouw! Mevrouw Yeşilgöz wil regeren met Wilders, maar dan moet ze wel zélf de premierspost krijgen. Mensen zien hier doorheen.
— Rob Jetten (@RobJetten) November 21, 2023
Maak D66 groot. Optimistisch aan de slag voor het klimaat, onderwijs en een land waar iedereen thuis is. https://t.co/w6i994Z0gR
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Far-right politician Geert Wilders is excited about the latest polling – and telling supporters to make it a reality tomorrow.
PVV OP 1 ❤️
— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) November 21, 2023
In laatste peiling zijn we de GROOTSTE partij van Nederland!
Maak het morgen de waarheid en stem allemaal #PVV! pic.twitter.com/NpVZTna1XM
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Yeşilgöz-Zegerius rules out joining government led by far right
The head of the People’s party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius ,has ruled out joining a government with the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) if it is voted the largest party.
The new leader of the prime minister Mark Rutte’s party told NPO Radio 1 on Tuesday morning that she would not sit in a government led by Geert Wilders.
“Firstly, I don’t see Wilders coming first,” she said.
She added:
I think the Dutch are looking for a leader of the country who can connect people, who keeps things together, who is there for all Dutch people, who can also lead our country internationally … and I don’t see Wilders forming a majority. I don’t see it happening and I won’t do it. A prime minister Wilders would not be good for this country.
Nevertheless, Yeşilgöz-Zegerius said she was prepared to talk to Wilders about coalition-forming if she was the largest party “but it is evident that there are big differences between the VVD and Timmermans [of GreenLeft/Labour] and the VVD and Wilders”.
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A minor has been arrested under the suspicion that he assaulted Thierry Baudet yesterday, NRC reported, citing the ANP news agency.
Baudet, leader of the far-right Forum for Democracy, was hit on the head with a beer bottle.
Zojuist heeft een traumachirurg @thierrybaudet behandeld in het UMCG. Hij is met een bierfles op zijn achterhoofd geslagen en tevens net naast zijn oog op de rand van zijn slaap geraakt. Een beveiliger raakte eveneens gewond aan zijn gezicht. We zijn ons aan het beraden of het…
— Forum voor Democratie (@fvdemocratie) November 20, 2023
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Explainer: Everything you need to know about the Dutch election
Dutch voters cast their ballots tomorrow in a snap parliamentary election called after the collapse in July of the outgoing coalition government headed by Mark Rutte, the EU’s second longest-serving leader after Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
The savvy liberal-conservative, a fixture at EU summits since 2010, failed to overcome “irreconcilable differences” in his fragile four-party coalition over migration policy – and announced soon after resigning that he was giving up national politics.
The departure of the Dutch political scene’s great survivor means that for the first time in more than 13 years and four different coalition governments, the Netherlands will get a new leader. Quite who it will be, however, is very hard to say.
Four parties – Rutte’s People’s party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), a Green-Labour alliance (GL/PvdA), Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV) and New Social Contract (NSC), a brand-new party led by a popular former Christian Democrat MP – are vying for the lead in the polls.
None, however, looks likely to win more than 20% of the vote and, as ever, the next Dutch government – invariably an influential player on the EU and international stage – will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could well last months.
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The GreenLeft/Labour candidate, Frans Timmermans, is making the case that the left will ensure a return to trust.
If the left becomes the largest, we will show everyone that we are making the Netherlands more honest. In this way we ensure that trust in each other returns.
Als links de grootste wordt, dan gaan we aan iedereen laten zien dat wij Nederland eerlijker maken. Zo zorgen we ervoor dat het vertrouwen in elkaar weer terugkomt.
— Frans Timmermans (@F__Timmermans) November 21, 2023
Kies voor een hoopvolle toekomst voor iedereen. Stem GroenLinks-PvdA. @RTLnieuws pic.twitter.com/gkdxGExGuW
The far-right politician Geert Wilders has responded to an ad by D66, which advertised that it is “the smartest vote against Wilders”.
“D66 paid a lot to have my name printed on the front page of the Volkskrant today,” Wilders wrote.
D66 heeft flink betaald om mijn naam op de voorpagina van de Volkskrant te laten afdrukken vandaag.
— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) November 21, 2023
En iedereen weet nu: #StemPVV! pic.twitter.com/O55luDTC6A
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The GreenLeft leader Jesse Klaver is urging voters to vote for the left to counter the far-right politician Geert Wilders.
Een stem op GroenLinks-PvdA is een stem op verenigd links.
— Jesse Klaver (@jesseklaver) November 21, 2023
We moeten juist nu samen sterk staan. Voor onze idealen, tegen een rechts-conservatief kabinet. Om te voorkomen dat Wilders de grootste wordt.
Wij hebben laten zien dat linkse samenwerking voorbij partijgrenzen gaat. https://t.co/Ya4XvgEyYL
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A 2-metre-tall inflated elephant was put up by the pan-EU federalist party Volt in front of the Dutch parliament on Monday to draw attention to what the party believes is a lack of focus on the EU during this election cycle.
“Migration, security, climate, digitisation, and every other issue that has been discussed in these elections can only be tackled if the Netherlands works together in Europe. But in this national election, the Netherlands’ place in the world is barely discussed,” Volt’s Dutch co-founder Reinier van Lanschot told the Guardian.
“This is the elephant in the room,” he said.
Volt, which according to one poll is projected to win four seats in the 150-seat assembly, describes itself as the first Pan-European movement, with parties in all EU countries. Van Lanschot added:
Even with two wars going on, Dutch politicians act as if the Netherlands is alone in the world.
Volt has campaigned against proposals by other candidates to reduce the number of international students and staff at Dutch universities.
The party’s leader, Laurens Dassen, also criticised a recent statement made by Pieter Omtzigt, a popular MP whose New Social Contract (NSC) party is polling strongly, who said the Netherlands should “sometimes” follow the example of Hungary and Poland, two countries who have in the past blocked joint EU declarations.
“Politicians who say that we can get by without European cooperation are reducing our sovereignty, destroying our economy and destroying our country,” Dassen told the Guardian.
But it can be done differently: by working together we increase our ability to tackle the climate crisis. By working together we guarantee our safety. By working together we make the transition to the clean economy of the future possible.
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Rem Korteweg, a senior research fellow at the Clingendael Institute, said today that the “only surprise” in the Dutch campaign was the rise of the far-right candidate Geert Wilders over the past days.
"The wildest ride"....this is a rather exaggerated take.
— Rem Korteweg (@remkorteweg) November 21, 2023
Campaign was boring.
Clear from the start that it would be a 3-horse race between Yesilgoz, Omtzigt and Timmermans.
Only surprise is the rise of Wilders in the last couple of days.
Dutchification continues unabated https://t.co/gPpgo26cMg
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Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius: The former refugee who wants to cut immigration, and become the first female Dutch PM
She is a former child refugee who wants to reduce immigration, has opened the door to the far right and could be the Netherlands’ first female prime minister.
Even before she became justice minister, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius had built an astonishing media profile. On a talkshow in 2016, she showed her grandmother Sara’s Louis Vuitton bag and told how she and her politically active Turkish Kurdish parents had fled Turkey when she was eight. They took a “rickety” boat from Bodrum to Kos with what fitted in that bag, then settled in Amersfoort, 30 miles south-east of Amsterdam.
By the time she was elected to parliament in 2017, after working as a VVD councillor, she had 45 TV appearances under her belt. Political journalist Sheila Sitalsing said: “As a councillor, she’s been a guest on all the programmes your average MP would kill to appear on.”
Yeşilgöz-Zegerius started her career with the Dutch Socialist party, then the Labour party, but found her feet in the centre-right VVD. She embraced being called a “pitbull in high heels” for her campaign to ban street harassment, and talked openly about her marriage, battles with an immune condition and hesitation about having children. Last year, she cut off a lock of her hair on live TV – choosing a section from the back – in support of women in Iran. “She’s a talkshow darling,” says du Pré.
As justice minister, she has criticised the “woke agenda”, extreme-right politicians and conspiracy theorists, and launched a Europe-wide anti-crime drive. When the government fell in a row over immigration, she said family reunification should be restricted, arguing that she would not have had the chances she had in a country with more refugees.
Recently, she told the rightwing tabloid De Telegraaf that, unlike Rutte, she would not rule out forming a coalition with Geert Wilders’s PVV, the far-right and anti-immigration party, and she repeated this today.
Carola Schoor of Leiden University’s politics programme, said: “She’s a tough lady. A lot of people like her. And she has an agenda that will appeal to people who maybe don’t want a woman, or someone from Turkey, as prime minister.”
Read the full story here.
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Pieter Omtzigt: the Netherlands outsider whose politics is firmly in the centre
Usually in European elections the insurgent candidates come from the outer reaches of the political spectrum: the far left or, more often of late, the far right. This one comes solidly from the centre. He could hardly be less fringe if he tried.
Days after Pieter Omtzigt, a Dutch Christian Democrat MP for 18 years, announced in August he was founding a new party to “do politics differently”, it was topping the polls. Two days from the vote, it is vying for the lead in the parliamentary election.
The outcome of Wednesday’s ballot remains far from certain. But analysts say the meteoric rise of Omtzigt’s New Social Contract (NSC) reflects his personal reputation, the political space he occupies, his promise of democratic reform and, not least, the fragmented state of Dutch politics.
With many people still undecided and polls suggesting tactical voting may prove a decisive factor in the ballot, Omtzigt – who has ruled out entering a coalition with the anti-Islam Geert Wilders – may yet benefit from last-minute allegiance-switching aimed at heading off a possible far-right surge.
The 49-year-old is perhaps best known for his key role in toppling the government of Mark Rutte in 2021 over a child benefit scandal in which more than 20,000 families were wrongly accused of fraud, many on the basis of ethnicity.
Read the full story here.
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Here are some photos from the Netherlands this week as the country prepares for Wednesday’s election.
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How are the polls shifting in the Dutch election?
De Volkskrant has a graph showing seat distribution polling ahead of tomorrow’s election.
Dutch party leaders clash in TV debate as election nears
Dutch party leaders have clashed in a tetchy televised debate, as the Netherlands election campaign entered its final days.
The country’s six main party leaders confronted each other in Rotterdam on Monday night, as a poll suggested Frans Timmermans’ GreenLeft/Labour was neck and neck – on 27 seats of a total 150 – with the party that has led the past four governments, the People’s party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) under Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius.
The poll also showed a six-seat gain to 26 seats for Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam Party for Freedom, which has been campaigning on distrust in government and an immigration “stop”. Support for the centre-right backbencher Pieter Omtzigt and his New Social Contract dropped four seats to 21 – although after the poll was taken, Omtzigt said he would be a prime ministerial candidate, one uncertainty that was troubling voters.
During the debate, the six main party leaders, including Farmer-Citizen Movement’s Caroline van der Plas and liberal democratic D66 leader Rob Jetten, interrupted each other and failed to agree on any subjects except the housing crisis.
The ill-tempered spectacle came as the poll suggested that a previous survey last week – which showed a surge for the far-right Party for Freedom – may also have galvanised progressive votes for GreenLeft/Labour.
Read the full story here.
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