A relatively high share of urban consumers entered the 2023 festival season with more confidence than seven years ago. The conclusion is based on the September 2023 edition of the Reserve Bank of India’s Consumer Confidence Survey.
The survey gathers the present views of households in relation to the previous year, focusing on the general economic climate, employment conditions, price trends, and individual income and expenditures across 19 key cities. The most recent iteration of this survey took place from September 2 to 11, 2023, with 6,077 participants; 50.3% of them were female respondents.
In September 2023, the start of the festival season in India, 36% of the respondents said the general economic situation had improved compared to a year ago — the highest for any September after 2016. While confidence in the economy is at a seven-year high, levels of pessimism about the economy are at a six-year low. In September 2023, only 44% said that the economic situation had worsened compared to a year ago — the lowest for any September after 2017. However, those who felt the economy worsened continued to be more than those who felt it had improved.
Chart 1 | The chart plots respondents’ views on the general economic situation for every September since 2012.
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In September 2023, 34% said their employment opportunities had improved compared to a year ago — the highest for any September after 2018. Pessimism about job opportunities was also low. In September 2023, 44% said their employment levels had worsened compared to a year ago — the lowest for any September after 2017. However, more respondents continued to report that their employment opportunities had worsened than those who said it had improved.
Chart 2 | The chart plots respondents’ views on employment opportunities every September since 2012.
In September 2023, 25% of the respondents said their income levels had improved compared to a year ago — the highest for any September after 2018. Pessimism about income levels was also low. In September 2023, 25% also said their income levels had worsened compared to a year ago — the lowest for any September after 2018.
Chart 3 | The chart plots respondents’ views on income levels for every September since 2012.
In September 2023, 91% of the respondents said the price levels of commodities had increased compared to a year ago. For the third consecutive September, the share of such respondents persists above the 90% mark.
Chart 4 | The chart plots respondents’ views on price levels of commodities for every September since 2012.
In September 2023, 74% said their spending levels had increased compared to a year ago — the highest for any September after 2018. For the second consecutive September, the share of such respondents persists above the 70% mark.
Chart 5 | The chart plots respondents’ views on spending levels for every September since 2012.
In summary, a higher share of people entered the festival season this year with more confidence about the economy, their job opportunities and income levels than before. A high share of them continue to feel that the price level of commodities is higher than a year ago. A high share of them also spent more this September than in previous years.
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According to the RBI’s observations, prospects also look bright. “Households remain highly optimistic on future earnings even though their sentiment on current earnings remained around its July 2023 level.” The general economic forecast, along with the outlook for employment, income, and spending, is anticipated to be better. Additionally, the Future Expectations Index (FEI) hit its highest level in four years in the most recent survey, the RBI observed.
Source: Reserve Bank of India’s Consumer Confidence Survey
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