The Washington Commanders offense is undergoing a seismic shift with the drafting of Jayden Daniels to be their franchise player. However, every young quarterback needs a running game to prevent defenses from being in “Shark Week” mode and attacking on every snap.
Brian Robinson Jr. has made the most of his opportunity, and new head coach Dan Quinn has talked a big game about his ability. However, the arrival of Austin Ekeler (and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury) point to a change in philosophy. Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols have a good view of the show but won’t be part of it, barring catastrophe.
Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson has flashed signs of being a fantasy starter. As a rookie in 2022 — he missed his first four games after being shot — Robinson had 21 or more carries in four of his final seven games and was off to a strong start last season. Washington’s offense was pretty brutal, and he eased his way out of fantasy starting lineups as the season progressed. After Week 3, he rushed for more than 60 yards just twice and had 15 or more carries only three times.
Quinn has been a coach with a history of leaning on running backs to maintain game balanced and as a weapon of its own. Robinson showed prowess as a two-way threat as a rusher and receiver – he caught 36 passes for 368 yards and four touchdowns last season to go along with 733 rushing yards and five more touchdowns.
Under ordinary circumstances, Robinson would be viewed as a player with high upside and a value pick. Then, he learned the Commanders signed Ekeler and everything changed.
Austin Ekeler
It can be argued that the best thing that ever happened to Justin Herbert was having Ekeler with him. In 2021-22, Ekeler became the league’s elite dual threat. In 33 games, he rushed 410 times for 1,826 yards, caught 177 passes for 1,369 yards, and scored 38 touchdowns. Finding someone more productive was difficult.
His final season in Los Angeles wasn’t brutal, but it was a significant backward step. Ekeler’s average per carry dropped a full yard, his 51 receptions were his fewest since 2018, and the six touchdowns scored were a cliff-drop from prior standards set.
He comes to Washington looking to reclaim his spot as an elite fantasy (and NFL) player (so are an inordinate number of franchise featured backs), but it may take an injury to Robinson for Ekeler approach the fantasy chops he had as recently as two years ago.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols
When Robinson missed two games in December, Rodriguez responded with 20 carries for 93 yards and two touchdowns. That was enough to help convince the organization to move on from veteran Antonio Gibson.
The signing of Ekeler not only pushes Rodriguez back to RB3 in the offense, it sets him farther back than he was with Robinson and Gibson.
In six NFL seasons, McNichols has played for four teams, and his only production came in two seasons with Tennessee in 2020-21. Given the talent at the top, keeping four running backs isn’t a certainty on this roster.
Fantasy football outlook
There will be contentious debate heading into fantasy drafts. These two will be RB1a and RB1b. The first question is who’s whom? The second question is who cares?
A rookie quarterback set up by roster design to start Week 1 with one of the worst offensive lines in the league isn’t a great recipe. That explains the arrival of Kingsbury – spread the receivers out and get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand ASAP.
What may be the determining factor is which of them blocks better? Robinson is younger, bigger, stronger, and looking for a second contract. Ekeler is a gun for hire. In the same backfield, neither has value higher than a very late RB3 in a 12-team league or an early No. 4 in shallow formats.
It’s a no-man’s land, because burning two draft picks and rolling the dice on a handcuff in search of an injury on bench players behind an offensive line guaranteed to have a stiff at left tackle makes no sense. If you can get one of them as a RB4 maybe it’s worth the gamble. Maybe.
Ekeler hung his hat on believing he should be paid wide receiver money because of his role. Daniels is a phenomenally talented runner. The dump-off receptions that made Ekeler (or Robinson last year) famous are likely negated by Daniels taking off to get a first down on his own with his legs.
Let somebody else make those decisions.
