Six million people in Somalia are facing crisis levels of food insecurity from a lack of rain and spiking food and water prices due to the Middle East war, United Nations-backed experts and humanitarian groups have warned.
Almost a third of the population is affected by food insecurity, according to data published Thursday from the UN-backed group monitoring hunger and malnutrition, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Initiative (IPC).
Some 4.1 million people in Somalia are currently classified as being in the "crisis" phase of food insecurity and nearly 1.9 million people in the "emergency" phase – one step away from the "catastrophic" level, equal to famine.
The analysis found that Somalia's Burhakaba District, in the country's south, was at risk of famine in a "plausible worst-case scenario of failing Gu rains, soaring food prices and below expected delivery of humanitarian food security assistance".
The Gu rainy season from April to June is Somalia's most important period for crops and livestock.
Nearly 1.88 million children are now expected to need treatment for acute malnutrition this year, the IPC found.
Crisis-level hunger in Somalia nearly doubles to 6.5 million people, UN experts warn
Cost of living
A host of factors were driving the deterioration, the report found.
It cited the decline in value of the Somali shilling, due to its rejection by traders and service providers in the south, as well as displacement of people due to conflict and insecurity, and flood risks in river areas.
Humanitarian group Mercy Corps also warned on Thursday that the ongoing war in the Middle East is having a drastic effect on Somalia, with the cost of fuel, food, water and fertiliser rising.
Daud Jiran, country director for Somalia at Mercy Corps says that in some of the areas hardest hit by drought, a single jerrycan of water now costs up to $1.50, compared with just a few cents a year ago.
"For mothers already struggling to put even one meal on the table, basic necessities like water are becoming unaffordable."
'Preventable catastrophe'
Jiran insists that funding and early action could prevent the worst case scenario, as in 2022 when the country was pulled back from the brink of famine.
"Somalia is once again facing a preventable catastrophe," he said. "Only urgent action can stop this crisis from deepening."
However, the IPC report says humanitarian assistance is reaching just 12 percent of the 6 million people in crisis.
Under the same sky, climate change brings drought to Somalia and floods to Kenya
The UN's World Food Programme warned last week it would have to halt humanitarian assistance in Somalia by July if it did not receive new funding.
The UN has steadily reduced its Somalia aid programme from $2.6 billion (€2.2 billion) in 2023 to $852 million (€740 million) this year, since the United States slashed its contributions. So far, only 13 percent of this year's target has been raised.
"It's a toxic cocktail of factors... things are really, really desperate," Tom Fletcher, head of the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told French news agency AFP last month.
"Often we're having to choose which lives to save and which lives not to save."
Since its state collapsed in the early 1990s, Somalia has endured near-constant civil war, Islamist insurgencies, floods, droughts and episodes of famine.
The country also ranks among the world's most vulnerable to climate change, which scientists say is leading to more frequent and more intense incidences of extreme weather, such as droughts and floods.
(with newswires)
