Max Verstappen's dominance this year is down to four key elements – his phenomenal driving skill and a car that has exceptional straight-line speed, an extremely effective DRS system and excellent balance through the corners.
All that came together to put him on top spot again at Silverstone, but the Hungarian track is very different, with a priority on low- and medium-speed turns and a lack of a decent high-speed straight.
Although modern car performance has enabled drivers to make it faster than it used to be, it is still known as a bit of a performance leveller – but whether it will reduce Red Bull's advantage remains to be seen.
In a shuffling of the chasing pack, McLaren came closest to challenging him at Silverstone but ultimately fell short – and the fact that Verstappen qualified tenth in Budapest last year and still won the race will surely have his rivals wincing.
So, as F1 heads to Hungary, what can we expect?
WINNING CHANCES
Although much has been made of Red Bull's straight-line speed, it also has a chassis that is extremely good in corners and over bumps, so while one part of its advantage will be limited, another could be enhanced.
At Silverstone, the Red Bull was faster than anyone in the medium-speed corners – of which there are plenty in Budapest – and with a decent DRS zone to take advantage of too, Verstappen is still a clear favourite again at 8/25.
Mercedes did secure a double podium in Hungary last year, however, and Lewis Hamilton has won 50 percent of his races at the track (8 from 16) with a total of 11 podiums in all. Win number nine would be a record at any track.
In a Mercedes that has shown signs of a recovery – including third at Silverstone – Hamilton is 13/1 for the win, while his team-mate, George Russell, could be a tempting option at 24/1, having secured pole himself in Hungary last year.
PODIUM CHALLENGERS
This year has seen six different teams and eight of the 20 drivers make it onto the podium so far, with Lando Norris of McLaren the latest visitor when he finished second in the last race at Silverstone.
Incredibly, four different teams have finished second in the last four races – McLaren (Norris) in Britain; Ferrari (Charles Leclerc) in Austria; Aston Martin (Fernando Alonso) in Canada; and Mercedes (Lewis Hamilton) in Spain.
McLaren was on a high on their home track, but that race was run in relatively cool conditions that suited their car, which works its tyres hard and gets them up to temperature quickly. In Hungary things may be different for the Papaya pair.
This race is usually run in hot weather – it has only ever been a wet race three times – and race day currently sees highs of 29 degrees. That should see the cars and drivers that are best at managing their tyres come to the fore.
Verstappen's team-mate Sergio Perez is one of those, and right now he needs to hit a bit of form. He has only had one podium in the last five races – a third in Austria – so now is the time to turn it around. His odds for a podium are 81/100.
Fernando Alonso seems to shine at the Hungaroring, however, with five visits to the podium in all. His Aston Martin team has faded in recent races, but with the tight margins at the front, the Spaniard could just make the difference.
As for Ferrari, past form in Hungary does not look good. They have had one podium there in the last three years – with Carlos Sainz in 2021 – and Charles Leclerc's best finish is fourth, in his first year with the team in 2019.
POINTS PLAYERS
Every team now has some points on the board, but Alpha Tauri has the fewest with just two 10th places – both of which went to Yuki Tsunoda. Nyck de Vries and Williams' Logan Sargeant are the only two drivers yet to score.
De Vries will no longer get a chance to do so because from this race on he has been replaced by Red Bull reserve Daniel Ricciardo – who won in Hungary for Red Bull in 2014 – back on the grid in his place.
It will take something special to haul the AlphaTauri up from its typical position at the back of the pack, but if one thing is certain Ricciardo will be trying seriously hard to make a mark. His odds of finishing in the points are 2/1.
CHANCE CHOICES
The tight and twisty nature of the Hungaroring makes the start dicier than most, and more than half of the races there have seen at least one car eliminated on the opening lap.
Despite that, the safety car has only ever appeared in six races and it has only been used once since 2017. Sunday is tipped to be sparkling sunshine, so the chances of it coming out due to rain, even, are also slim.
If Verstappen does win, however, it is not very likely that he will race away from the pack. There is not often a large winning margin in Hungary – the average over the last 10 years is around eight seconds – so he could still be run close.
NOTE: Odds correct at time of writing
