by Saranac Hale Spencer
The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center estimates that, on average, Americans’ taxes would rise about 7.5 percent if the 2017 tax cuts are allowed to fully expire at the end of the year. But President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that if the Republican budget bill, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, doesn’t pass, Americans “will get a 68 percent tax increase.”
The White House did not respond to our request for information about where the president’s number came from, but it appears he may be referring to the percentage of Americans who would see a tax increase of some amount if the tax cuts expire. Some independent analyses put that percentage at close to the president’s number. But that’s not the way the president has repeatedly presented the figure.
