Less than two weeks ago, the Premier League was given an 84.4 per cent chance of securing a fifth Champions League spot next season – now those hopes are almost over, apart from one unlikely scenario.
The Champions League moves to a new format for the 2024/25 season, with 36 teams in the group stage rather than 32, and two of those extra places will go to the countries who have the best average performance across all three European competitions this season.
Prior to last Thursday’s Europa League and Conference League quarter-final first legs, England looked almost certain to take one of those extra spots, according to computer simulations, because of results in Europe this term – Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham and Aston Villa were all in the quarter-finals of their respective competitions.
Then it all went wrong – Liverpool and West Ham suffered damaging defeats in the first leg of their Europa League ties, then Manchester City and Arsenal were knocked out of the Champions League.
When exits for Liverpool and West Ham were confirmed in the second leg, England was left with only Aston Villa in the semi-finals of any continental competition.
Italy had always looked well placed to claim one of the two Champions League spots and have now confirmed that extra place, after Atalanta, Roma and Fiorentina all reached the semi-finals of their respective competitions.
Germany had previously looked set to finish third behind England in the rankings, but now seem almost certain to take the extra Champions League spot, with Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all reaching the semis in Europe this season.
That would mean that fifth place in the Premier League this term would only be good enough for a Europa League spot – bad news for whoever misses out in the race for fourth, being contested by Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur.
Coincidentally, England’s only hope of rescuing the fifth Champions League spot rests with Aston Villa in the Conference League, and an unlikely sequence of events.
All season, every club in Europe have been earning coefficient points, based on their results. Teams get two points for winning a match inside 90 minutes, one point for a draw, plus bonus points for progressing through rounds.
Currently, Germany have 125.5 points – an average of 17.928 across their seven teams in continental competition this season. England have 139 points, but have had eight clubs in Europe following West Ham’s Conference League triumph last term, so their average is only 17.375.
As things stand right now, England need to accumulate a certain amount more ranking points than Germany in the remainder of this season’s European competitions, for them to leapfrog the Bundesliga in the average.
Even if Germany accumulated no more points at all this season – if Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen all lost both legs of each semi – then Aston Villa would still need five more points to allow the Premier League to bag a fifth Champions League spot.
They could potentially achieve that with two victories in the potential three Conference League fixtures they may have remaining, or one win and two draws – one bonus point is also available for reaching the final.
Even if Aston Villa win all three of their games and the Conference League trophy though, that would not be enough if the three German teams pick up just a win and a draw combined from their various semi-finals. In short, the Premier League’s hopes of five Champions League places next season almost certainly look doomed.
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