Standing in Canada’s House of Commons in 2023, the then-prime minister, Justin Trudeau, gave an impassioned speech on the value of welcoming newcomers.
“Canadians know that immigration is one of our greatest assets. It helps us compete,” he said. “If we want to boost our economic success significantly, we need to boost immigration.”
A year later, however, as public views soured on what had long been a bedrock of Canada’s economic growth toolbox, Trudeau pledged to cut the number of international students coming to the country and made changes to a controversial program that relied on migrant workers for agricultural jobs and the fast-food industry.
His immigration minister said the volume of people arriving was “overheated” and pledged to “infuse some discipline” into its handling of the immigration file.
By the time Trudeau’s successor, Mark Carney, won a spring election this year, the Liberals, in power for nearly a decade, were midway through dismantling an immigration system they had spent years building up. In November, Carney told students his government was “getting immigration under control”.
This week, Canada recorded a rare contraction to its population, marking the biggest drop in more than five decades, and providing evidence that the policy levers Ottawa has frantically pulled are showing real-world consequences. Data from a number of polling firms suggests that the broader public supports more muted immigration goals, but views on immigration are increasingly cleaving along partisan lines.
New estimates released on Wednesday by Statistics Canada showed that Canada’s population fell by 0.2% in the third quarter to stand at 41.6 million, down from 41.65 million on 1 July.
The only other quarterly decline on record came in 2020, and was attributed to Covid-19 border restrictions. The recent drop, however, is driven largely by a fall in the number of international students studying in Canada after Ottawa pledged to tamp down the number of study permits issued.
Two years ago, facing a labour shortage in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Canada approved large numbers of non-permanent residents, increasing the number of people in the country by 1.3 million. That, the government later concluded, was too much too fast.
Since last year, the federal government has used blunt tools to cut the number of people entering Canada, halving the number of study permits issued to international students, cutting the number of migrant workers issued work permits and increasing deportations.
“In 2024, the Trudeau government realized they had to switch gears, and they did – but it wasn’t something that could be solved short term. The impact of the policy takes time to come into effect and make a difference. These latest figures from Statistics Canada confirm what should have been expected to see,” said Keith Neuman of the Environics Institute, a non-profit public opinion polling firm. “To me, it seems like a correction as opposed to a decline.”
LJ Valencia, an economist with Desjardins Group, suggests the recent decrease in non-permanent residents will have the effect of boosting the country’s real GDP per capita, countering declining growth in 2023 and 2024.
“However, weaker population growth is also poised to act as a drag on the broader economy,” he wrote in a research note. “This will add to existing headwinds – from trade policy uncertainty to the mortgage renewal cycle – which are expected to weigh on near-term growth and the minds of central bankers.”
But the moves also come as Canada’s public sours on the levels of immigration once cheered on by the government. The country’s shifts in both policy and public sentiment reflect a retreat from aggressive immigration targets.
Last year, polling data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute found Canadians’ concern over immigration has risen fourfold over the last two years. Even the federal government’s own immigration ministry conducted polling that suggested Canadians’ support for immigration levels decreased “to a low not seen in 30 years”.
That figure is dramatically higher among Conservative voters.
“Federal Conservative party supporters are now, by far, the most critical and negative group of Canadians on [immigration and its effects on the country] and have become measurably more so on almost every measure,” Environics said in its recent report.
Neuman said that skepticism towards immigration was documented across all party lines, but has levelled off in recent months.
“Still, we’re seeing it become far more of a partisan wedge issue than it used to be. The split between parties has been gradually building over the past 15 years, but over the last two years, maybe that gap has really widened,” he said.
Neuman also says there has also been a notable shift to how Canadians think about immigration itself. Over nearly four decades, friction over immigration focused on questions of cultural assimilation, he said.
But the recent cost of living crisis changed that.
“Suddenly, for the first time, there was more intense focus and attention on the volume because it coincided with economic affordability concerns. Housing was less affordable. Infrastructure was stretched. In larger cities, people were seeing more and more homeless people and refugees on the streets,” he said. “Public opinion stayed remarkably consistent over the last 15 years through the pandemic and the financial meltdown. None of those really moved the public. But when increased immigration numbers and economic precarity collide, this is when you see the shift.”
In November, Carney told a group of university students significant changes were needed to a system that was stretched.
“To match immigration levels with our needs and our capacity, the budget will include Canada’s new immigration plan to do better – for newcomers, for everyone.”
Data from the federal governments show a spike in resettled refugees accessing homeless shelters in 2023, when the number of people coming to Canada surged.
A recent tool from Canada’s immigration and refugees ministry gives users estimated wait times for processing. In a number of cases, those waits reach 10 years.
“This is where we are. It’s a challenging one to solve. And so when the prime minister says his government is trying to get this ‘under control’, it reflects issues with the system that are challenging,” said Neuman. “A 10-year wait for a refugee to learn if they can stay in Canada? That doesn’t sound like the system is under control.”
