THE prospect of a new SNP leader stepping into Nicola Sturgeon ’s shoes has brought a wave of predictions about the future of the independence movement.
Opposition parties were quick to declare it had thrown the cause into doubt, while a poll carried out by Savanta in the wake of her resignation predicted Yes parties will command a 23-seat majority in the Scottish Parliament.
Meanwhile an Ipsos survey found around just over half of the public (54%) and of SNP voters (51%) thinks her resignation will have a negative impact on the case for independence.
Here we ask some experts what they believe the change in leadership could mean for the SNP and wider Yes movement and what could happen next.
'How do you put a new face on the SNP?'
MURRAY Leith, professor of political science at the University of the West of Scotland, said the new SNP leader would have “big shoes to fill”, but argued criticism of a “cult of personality” around Sturgeon were unfair.
“I don’t see that she necessarily went out of her way to do that – she has said that there’s quite a bit of talent within the SNP,” he said.
“But it’s the nature of media today and social media today to individualise politics, to individualise our leaders. So they’re going to have to deal with how to put a new stamp on the party, how to put a new face on the party – but the biggest challenge is what direction do they go in from here?”
He said claims that no-one else will be able to get a grasp on Scotland like Sturgeon had achieved had also been made about Alex Salmond when he stepped down.
“It will be interesting to see what hats to get thrown into the ring over the next few days and what they have to say and, more importantly, how they engage with each other,” he said.
“Because I can’t necessarily see it being like the last Conservative [leadership election], I personally think we’ll see a much more in line with the SNP, a much more positive and disciplined discussion that will focus around the very question we’re asking here – what will happen in the future, what direction will the party go in?”
Leith added: “You have to pick someone that the party is clearly feels united behind and more importantly, they’re going to have to pick someone that they feel can unite the party.
“And I think in the discussion that the party had about the process they are probably going to have thought as strongly about that as they have about practical elements of the process.
“If I was a political party I know I would be looking back in UK politics and going we don’t want to repeat the behaviour of certain other political parties that have gone through leadership challenges in the last couple of years.
“One thing the SNP has always been very good at has been learning from the lessons of some pretty ugly behaviour.”
'Independence debate has been muted under Sturgeon'
WRITER and commentator Kirsty Hughes, former director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations, said Sturgeon had managed to “put Scotland on the map” and been an international ambassador for the country – which was particularly important in the context of Europe.
She said: “I think it is true to say, compared to back in 2014, that the image that politicians and governments, officials and different publics in different countries have is that Scotland is now much more easily recognisable to people like Ireland, like Denmark, like Finland.
“The idea that Scotland might want they be an independent state in the EU looks more accessible, reasonable, understandable – I think that that is quite an achievement.”
But she added: “On the other hand in a way, all the arguments around independence have been rather muted certainly in recent years.
“I just felt it was never picked up with as much energy and positivity and priority as it could have been –and that’s not all about just Nicola Sturgeon, I feel that it could and should have gone across the party.
“But you can’t just then leave that to MPs and MSPs – you’ve got to have a strategy there.
“The pandemic put a big hole in that, but it’s as if a lot of what the government and Nicola Sturgeon did was end up reacting to power grabs.
“Of course, you react to power grabs and refusals to hold a referendum and decisions of the Supreme Court and so on, but you have to make the positive case.”
Hughes said the new SNP leader is likely to continue to back rejoining the EU – which would provide the party with a contrasting position to Labour in the General Election in terms of both independence and the position on Europe.
“I think it can be a confident and an energetic case and it has to be more than just yes, we definitely want you to leave a light on for us and we’re coming back,” she added.
“That’s fine, you want emotional language too, but I think you can talk about it with considerable energy and hope and positivity.”
'Sturgeon led one of Europe's strongest election-winning machines'
PROFESSOR Richard J Finlay, head of the school of humanities at the University of Strathclyde and the author of a number of books, particularly on the modern history of Scotland, said the “solid” independence support which Sturgeon had managed to firm up was unlikely to disappear after her resignation as First Minister.
“Nicola Sturgeon provided leadership at a crucial time following the defeat at the referendum in 2014,” he said.
“It is worth remembering that after the defeat of the referendum in 1979, the SNP crashed at the general election and the party was racked by division and recriminations.
“After 2014, Nicola Sturgeon led one of the most effective electoral machines in Europe that swept everything in front of her.
“Perhaps more significantly, she helped to firm up and solidify support for independence and turn what was previously a lot of soft support into solid and permanent support for independence.
“This core is showing no signs of dissipating and the demographics of support make it likely that it is a matter of time.”
He added: “The key thing about the independence movement is that they don’t depend on figureheads.
“The challenge for her successor is to push levels of support for independence up to make it – as was the case for devolution – “the settled will of the Scottish people”.
“By doing this, the issue of the referendum loses a lot of its potency in that its purpose would then be one of confirmation.”
'The way forward is for a more radical SNP leadership'
GERRY Mooney, professor of Scottish society and social welfare in the faculty of arts and social sciences at The Open University, said he believed the SNP leadership had “effectively derailed the independence campaign and undermined the wider independence movement”.
“A key element of this for me is that they were prepared to go to war with the trade unions – not just at present but over the past few years – and this means that they are almost indistinguishable from the other main parties in relation to attitudes to the labour movement and working class activism,” he said.
“The irony of this is that it is public sector workers who turned to the SNP in large numbers following the failures of Labour to defend public services and increase the wages and conditions of public sector workers.
“The rationale of Sturgeon and her colleagues has been to pursue a constitutionalist route to independence and that has only served to drain the energy from the independence movement.
“The vision of independence that is on offer is hardly socially and economically transformationalist – but is embedded in a pro-market and neoliberal approach to the economy and society too.”
He added: “It is very much a story of so near, but also so far. What galvanised the independence movement in 2014 – especially among younger people – was a promise of radical change. Sadly that has largely gone.
“The way forward is for a more radical SNP leadership – one that’s prepared to take on the Tories at UK level and out manoeuvre Labour by appealing to workers.
“The SNP have got to take on those vested interests that dominate Scotland. There is still a large demand for indy but it needs more radical direction.”
