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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Business
Saffron Otter

Expert warns drop in inflation 'is not as it seems' and rate is 'actually DOUBLE'

When the Government announced that inflation had dropped to single figures for the first time since last summer, it sounded like good news.

But experts are warning that although inflation has now dipped to 8.7 per cent in the 12 months to April, prices are still going up, just at a marginally slower rate.

One cost of living expert remains 'highly cynical' over today's announcement and argues that in reality, inflation should be seen as 'double' what is reported.

Financial educator Polly Arrowsmith, 56, tells the Mirror: "Inflation may go into single figures, but I remain highly cynical that it will feel like this to the average person.

Expert Polly remains 'cynical' amid the latest news (Polly Arrowsmith)
Brits are still feeling the pinch despite a drop in inflation to single figures for the first time since last August (Getty Images)

"The Government manipulates RPI (Retail Price Index) and CPI (Consumer Prices Index) by not including many services such as rents and mortgages; changing the basket of goods and substituting goods for cheaper items so that a cheaper fish will replace an expensive fish; not giving the correct weighting to the item, so rent maybe 35 per cent of an average income but reported as being lower than it is; and as a measurement of enjoyment to be derived from the basket of goods.

"In reality, inflation is generally double what the Government reports it as.

"It suits them to keep us in the dark as so many things are linked to inflation.

"Imagine what would happen if inflation was accurately reported at 22 per cent? It is why people can not understand why they feel poorer and a £30 supermarket shop is now £50, but if inflation is 11 per cent, it should be £33.30."

Wednesday's inflation figure is down from the 10.1% that was recorded in March, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The ONS says the decline in inflation was driven by gas and electricity costs remaining stable in April but found that food and non-alcoholic beverage prices continued to rise throughout the month, contributing to the higher inflation rate.

The CPI measure of inflation tracks how prices have changed over 12 months and when inflation is higher, you're paying more for something compared to one year ago.

So if something cost £1 last year and the rate of inflation is 2 per cent, it would cost £1.02 today.

But Polly cites some examples of 'real inflation'.

The ONS says the decline in inflation was driven by gas and electricity costs remaining stable in April (Shared Content Unit)

Firstly, with supermarkets. For example, Sainsbury's easy peelers cost 69p in December 2022 and are now 99p, seeing a rise of 43 per cent.

While she says M&S has increased prices by up to 50 per cent in the last 18 months - but the small incremental raises are not that noticeable for customers.

"All food commodity costs have increased, mainly due to energy prices and pay rises, along with food shortages in some categories and significant droughts last year," Polly explains.

"There is less to go around, so prices go up.

"Suppliers to supermarkets work on low margins. They often negotiate pricing with supermarkets for the next 6-12 months so suppliers must sell at the agreed prices, even if their costs increase.

"Suppliers must then claw back any losses when negotiating prices with supermarkets in the future - these are the price rises that we are seeing now.

"We do see supermarkets do special deals all the time. These are agreed upon with the suppliers months in advance, and the supermarkets tend to run a different brand promotion at a different time than a competitor."

The qualified accountant continues: "Inflation rates are reported on a 12-month rolling basis. In January 2023, the inflation rate was reported to January 2022. In May 2023, the inflation rate was reported to May 2022.

Polly says despite pay rises, Brits will still be worse off due to high inflation (stock photo) (Getty Images/iStockphoto)

"So if the period of January 2022 to May 2022 saw significant price increases but stabilisation of prices after May 2022 to May 2023, the inflation rate would be reported as low, even though over 16 months, the inflation rate has been substantial. So the fact it is now in single digits is essentially meaningless."

Polly also argues that Britain's stagnant salaries are way behind what they should be amid the cost of living crisis, which is why despite having pay rises, staff are still less well off.

"Most salaries, benefits, and pensions have stayed considerably lower than the inflation rate," Polly begins.

"The pay increases are also different for roles. So while we see some public sector workers have a new pay deal, it is nothing like the real or reported inflation rate.

"So Unison has agreed on a lump sum and a 5 per cent increase. But this is still less than inflation. If food inflation is 9 per cent, then the rise of five does not make up for that.

"This means that people's purchasing power has decreased, and they cannot afford what they could a year ago. If inflation is 10 per cent, but your income has only increased by 5 per cent, you are less well off.

"You are still poorer if you have a pay rise of 4 per cent and your energy bill has increased by 40 per cent."

It comes as the Bank of England's top bosses admitted to MPs on Tuesday that it made errors in its forecasting of UK inflation, but governor Andrew Bailey insisted that inflation had 'turned the corner'.

It predicted earlier this month that inflation would fall to 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, narrowly seeing the Government hit its target to halve inflation by the end of the year.

Commenting on the inflation rate, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said: "The IMF said yesterday we've acted decisively to tackle inflation but although it is positive that it is now in single digits, food prices are still rising too fast.

"So as well as helping families with around £3,000 of cost of living support this year and last, we must stick resolutely to the plan to get inflation down."

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