Two-nil is supposed to be a dangerous scoreline. For Manchester United, it was more of an unknown one, offering a level of comfort to which they have become unaccustomed. After 29 games this season, they mustered a first 2-0 win. That is not the damning part, however, or the fact their victims, Wigan Athletic, lie in the lower reaches of League One.
It was only the third match this season they have won by more than one goal. By way of comparison, Manchester City have won 15 by at least two goals, Liverpool 17. United beat Crystal Palace 3-0 in the Carabao Cup, Everton by the same scoreline in the Premier League and now Wigan in the FA Cup.
They have offered three isolated examples of times when they have been able to relax and savour the scoreline, for Erik ten Hag to make changes without the risk one mistake could be fatal. The Dutchman took the opportunity, summoning Willy Kambwala, Facundo Pellestri, Omari Forson and Hannibal Mejbri in the last few minutes, simply to give them an outing and spare some of his premier players.
Because the other times when the outcome was not in doubt, it was not the one United wanted. They have lost by at least two goals seven times and if the scoreline was massaged by late goals at Arsenal, most were clear setbacks.
And if routine wins have been anything but routine, there are fundamental reasons. One has been inconsistency, another a level of performance that, all too often, has not positioned United to win with something to spare. But another was an issue at Wigan: a wastefulness.
United scored twice from 33 efforts: as one was a penalty, a ratio of one from 32 apart from that is still worse. It is a theme, their Champions League campaign excepted. United are seventh for shots in the Premier League but have only outscored Burnley and Sheffield United. They have too few shots on target – they slip to 11th in that particular table – and too few of those go in. And, in turn, too few of those goals come from the men who are supposed to score them, the attackers.
United’s chance conversion rate of seven percent is the second lowest in the Premier League: only Sheffield United have taken a smaller share of their opportunities. Below average – and with the caveat that penalties are excluded from such statistics – and Marcus Rashford has taken five percent of his chances in the top flight, Bruno Fernandes four. Rasmus Hojlund is on five, and it would be zero but for his Boxing Day winner at Aston Villa. Alejandro Garnacho is at seven percent, the team’s average, but took the toughest of all, with the overhead kick at Everton, and has missed some simpler attempts.
Antony – infamously, now – is still on nought percent: not merely in the Premier League, but in all competitions.
Somewhat incongruously, the player with the best conversion rate is Hannibal: one shot, one goal. Yet if such statistics are an outlier, courtesy of a small sample size, United have three of the players in the top 20 for shots in the division, in Fernandes, Garnacho and Rashford, and a marked difficulty in finding the net.
The elusive 2-0, finally secured against a third-tier team, offered a case in point. Rashford was a culprit at Wigan, taking eight shots, scoring from none. Fernandes had six, as did the top scorer Scott McTominay, Hojlund and Garnacho four apiece. In short, nearly all of the attempts came from the men who are supposed to specialise in such situations. The only finish in open play came instead from Diogo Dalot.
It explains in part why their season has been so fraught. Indeed, much of Ten Hag’s reign has been, with a lack of a clinical finisher making too many games too close for comfort. During his debut year, United often excelled in games of brinkmanship. Some of their defeats were heavy and many of their wins narrow. On 18 occasions in all competitions, they won by one goal. But it also meant they registered a goal difference of just plus 15 in the Premier League – to Newcastle’s 35 and Liverpool’s 28 – as Brighton outscored them by 14.
United have only had one prolific player under Ten Hag: Rashford last season, when he struck 30 times. Then the collective failure to support him could be pinned on Wout Weghorst. This year, profligacy is definitely a broader problem.
And if United are not as attacking or creative or exciting as Ten Hag sometimes suggests in his comments, nor should they be among the Premier League’s lowest scorers, almost incapable of beating anyone by two or more goals. If some of the relatively few highlights of their season have stemmed from late drama, they could do with finding the finishes earlier on to give them regulation wins and make them a regularity.
