Europe’s strategic predicament is ever clearer, and ever darker. The continent is at war, which is being fought militarily in Ukraine, but is escalating rapidly across Europe through hybrid attacks. Germany’s disclosure that it blames Russia for the drone attack at Leipzig airport; a Russian drone strike on a train near the Ukraine-Poland border; an Italian jet shooting down a Russian drone over Lithuania; flares fired from a Russian warship at a Danish helicopter – all within the space of a couple of weeks – tell a coherent story. Whether because Russia is bogged down and unable to advance in Ukraine, or because it believes the US will not come to Europe’s rescue, Vladimir Putin’s regime is ever more bent on escalating its aggression in Europe.
Putin’s calculus is not irrational. Trump never misses a chance to lash out at Europe – the latest example being his threats of further tariffs on the EU if Brussels proceeds to offer Canada “associate membership”. Europeans have grown numb to Trump’s insults and threats, but these threats do underline his deep antipathy, suggesting that if a Russian attack warranted a response, Trump might look the other way. The US certainly can’t be relied on to have Europe’s back.
