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Environment
Jonathan Paul, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Earth Science, Royal Holloway University of London

England may be set to flood at the end of winter – here's why

England may flood in February. Steve Allen/Shutterstock

Within the space of a week in February 2022, England and Wales were affected by three severe storms (Dudley, Eunice and Franklin). Persistent heavy rain led to the flooding of around 400 properties and severe flood warnings were issued for several major rivers, including the River Severn. Now, the UK Met Office is predicting that England is again set to experience severe flooding in February 2023 – a prediction the forecasters attribute to a global weather phenomenon called La Niña.

El Niño and La Niña are the two separate phases of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). This is the name given to the phenomenon of irregular annual variations in sea surface temperatures (by as much as 3℃), air pressure and rainfall across the Pacific Ocean. A La Niña event is characterised by significantly lower sea surface temperatures in areas of the Pacific.

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