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The Conversation
The Conversation
Environment
Manoj Joshi, Professor of Climate Dynamics, University of East Anglia

El Niño could push global warming past 1.5℃ – but what is it and how does it affect the weather in Europe?

A natural weather event known as El Niño is underway in the Pacific Ocean. jon sullivan/Shutterstock

Scientists have warned that 2024 could mark the year when global warming exceeds 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels. They attribute these predictions, at least in part, to the emergence of an El Niño event.

An El Niño is declared when the sea surface temperature in large parts of the central or eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean warms significantly – sometimes by as much as 2℃. This additional heat in turn warms the atmosphere. During El Niño years, this warming contributes to a temporary rise in the global temperature by a fraction of a degree.

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